第一篇练习 还有五天考 互拍 Argument 38

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 433          TIME: 00:51:26          DATE: 2009-8-21 0:38:19

In this argument, the author concludes that we should take Ichthaid for daily use. To substantiate this conclusion, the arguer points out the evidence that the fish consuption in East Maria is high. In addition he indicates that the people in East Maria seldom visit the doctor for the treatment of cold. Furthermore, the author cites the Ichthaid is derived from fish oil. However, these alone do not constitute a logical argument in favor of its conclusion and fail to provide convincing support making this argument sound and invulnerable.
The first problem is that the author's claim based on the assumption that people seldom visit the doctor for colds means that they seldom catch cold. Perhaps people just take medicine instead of visit doctor when they catch cold.
Even assuming that residents in East Meria seldom catch cold, we cannot attribute it to the high consumption of fish-rather than some other factor, such as the suitable climate and the good environment. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot justifiable conclude that we should take Ichithaid for daily use.
Granted that people in East Meria can prevent catching cold by having fish, the
author hastily assume that people in West Meria can also get rid of cold by eating fish. It is entirely possible that the residents in East Meria have better physique. In that case, they can be shield from the climate changes and virus which cause cold. Even if the people in West Meria can also prevent getting cold by the consumption of fish. The author fails to inform us it is Ichthaid result in this phenomenon.
Even though Ichthaid keeps people healthy, the author's argument that the absenteeism will lower for taking Ichthaid everyday. Common sense tells us, it is not only cold but other reasons will lead to the absence, just as some other
severe disease or maybe traffic accident. Without accounting for these reasons, the argument is unwarranted.
In sum, the author fails to substantiate his claim that we should take Ichthaid everyday because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lead strong support to the conclusion. To make the argument more convincing, the author would have to provide more information with regard to the rate of catching cold in East Meria. Additionally, he would have demonstrate that eating fish can make people in West Meria lessly getting cold. Moreover, the author should give us evidence that taking Ichthaid is equals to having fish for preventing cold. Therefore, if the argument had included the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and logically acceptable.

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谁来拍拍我吧，心里没底啊。