argument147--清凉夏日小组1组 大改过.但逻辑还不通,大家进来看看啊

abawtresbonUID: 2164961

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 310 à467       TIME: 0:30:00+12:00+修改重新理思路一个多小时。。。。        DATE: 2006-7-17

The arguer claims in this argument that the sales of whirlwind video games will probably increase significantly in the next few months. After careful scrutiny, I find the evidence provided in this editorial lends little support to the conclusion.

To begin with, Moreover, there might be other causes lead to the declination of this company rather than lacking of innovation and presentation of new products. In this sense, games, even advertised to be quite attractive and tempting, will not lead dramatic sales increasing.  Perhaps, the quality of products of this company has long been unstable, therefore affects W’s fame and reputation, while consumers always make decisions taking into consideration of the producers’ reputation as an important priority. Or perhaps, stories of pervious games are lack of innovation and excitement that has destroyed consumer’s confidence towards W’s games. Without ruling out these possibilities, the arguer cannot convince me with consumers will choose the same type of games of this company rather than other more credible and trustful companies, and in return, render W profitable.

Moreover, even if the innovation and new products are justified to be of the greatest importance, the survey mentioned above cannot sufficiently predict behavior of consumers.  On one hand, basic economic knowledge informs us that consumers’ behavior unstable, and preference does not mean purchasing inclination. On the other hand, even they may buy these games temporarily, whether they will keep purchasing in later several months is uncertain. It is very likely they continue playing the same game after one year or two years.

Finally, there is lack of evidence that this advertising campaign will help. Perhaps the target group of consumers might not purchase W’s games. The arguer fails to tell us whether the age-group has interest in the new type of games. Liking to play video games is one thing, while liking to play games of lifelike graphics is another thing. It is entirely possible that these would-be consumers have little demand for graphics but think more highly of story arrangements. Whether they can afford these games is also in question, since these games require computers of high standard. Also, even they can afford, it is still possible that they download these games form the Internet, share software with many friends or share a computer at different period of time in order to save money.

To sum up, this argument suffers from several logical problems. As we known, the activities of consumers are unpredictable and easily changed. Without more evidence that players who claims they prefer video games with lifelike graphics will buy the games after all, to predict that he sales will dramatically increase seems unwarranted. Moreover the whole sales situation is relevant to many other aspects. It will be more convincing if the arguer affords us more details about these aspects.

1.可能销量下降的原因是由于名声不好了,再怎么推荐新品也没有效果
2.survey无法章显消费者的行为
3.广告活动可能无功而反

2,3之间我觉得逻辑到现在还没理请清,若有似无的,大家给看看啊

[ 本帖最后由 abawtresbon 于 2006-7-17 13:52 编辑 ]

helenlhhUID: 2127690

我觉得2，3 段写的还是很清楚的，我都看明白了，思路也不乱。语言上比以前精简了一些，论证也基本上没有问题。

你还是把重点放在如何控制时间和写作速度上。我个人经验速度是很快就能练上去的，因为写的少，对着电脑不太习惯，所以写的慢。多写就好了。
阿报加油！争取好分！