argument53 越洋农场之yuexuan同主题写作

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[题目]
53.Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

提供
1：攻击调查本身有效性等
2：攻击文中的因果关系：distress与早孕，早孕与melatonin分泌 然后得出 distress与melatonin分泌的因果关系
3：攻击identified，攻击distress与shy两个概念差异

正文：狂用模板型 限时

In the argument, the author reaches the conclusion that increased levels of melatonin before birth will cause shyness during infancy and such shyness continues in future. The bases cited in the argument for this conclusion are the following facts: a study relative to signs of mild distress from 25 infants who have been conceived in early autumn was made 13 years ago; their mother has produced more melatonin during that time and in another study more than half of the teenagers identified themselves as shy earlier this year. Careful examination of the supporting evidence, however, reveals that evidence quoted in the argument lends little credible support to the conclusion.

To begin with, from the first study mentioned, we find no sign of such produce for randomly sampling and of evidence that the infants are representative of the general all, the result of the study, therefore, does not offer sufficient support to the author’s conclusion. The number of infants researched is only 25, thus we have good reason to doubt that the result of study lacks credibility and is not convincing.

Secondly, even assuming that the study is effective, there is no evidence available to lend strong support any casual relationship between the infants’ mild distress with increased levels of melatonin of their mother. To justify the conclusion, the author pointed out that those infants have been conceived in early autumn and their mother has produced in this time. In all likelihood the autumn is the most suitable season for convincing due to the mild weather , lots of spare time and other reasons and at the same time the more melatonin was produced because of food incurring they ate.

Lastly, we still have good reason to doubt whether the second study is effective or not when its randomly sampling and number of sample was concerned. It is possible that only parts of teenagers who are interested in the study responded to the study. The most important fact is that the author mentioned that teenagers showed signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Perhaps they do not know how to identify what is shy or it is just a joke and in fact they are not shy. Therefore the result does not provide sufficient evident to justify the conclusion.

To sum up, the evidence cited in the argument is vague and incomplete, thus does not lend strong support to the conclusion that the author maintains. To better evaluate this conclusion, we need more information concerning the cases of larger number infants and what is more we should classify the real reasons to influent teenager’ shy.