Argument117 [Chasing for 6 小组]第五次作业

byking1985UID: 2222368

117The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
   
提纲：
1.调查结果的可信度：调查的样本多大，回应者有多少？回应者是否具有代表性？
2.作者fail to weigh the advantage and disadvantage thoroughly
   
In this argument, the arguer states that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores with certain changes. This statement is based on the result of a recent survey that over 70 percent of the respondents are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. In addition, the arguer reasoned that since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, they should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines and also increase stock of office supplies. This argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.
      
In the first place, a threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. The arguer provides no evidence that the number of respondents is statistically significant or that the respondents were representative of the general group. Lacking such evidence, it's entirely possible that all the respondents, number was small, came from the same company or industry and they were more willing to respond to the survey than other people were. In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable and ruling out these possible scenarios, the business manager of Valu-Mart stores cannot rely on it to support the claim that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores by taking advantage of this work-at-home trend.
                                       
In the second place, the author fails to weigh the advantage and disadvantage thoroughly. The argument's conclusion that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component as a result is unwarranted. Profit is a factor of not only revenue but also costs. It is entirely possible that the costs of increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machine and office supplies, or other costs associated with increasing stocks, will offset additional revenue. Besides, a myriad of other possible occurrences, such as the quantity of needs or economic conditions, might prevent the office-supply departments from being as profitable in the foreseeable future as the argument predicts.
     
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence about the recent survey. Additionally, the arguer must provide evidence to rule out the possibility that costs would overcome the profits.

[ 本帖最后由 byking1985 于 2007-2-24 12:17 编辑 ]