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发表于 2007-11-20 13:52:39
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ARGUMENT75 求砖,有拍必回,请留链,谢谢!
The following appeared in a newsletter about health.
"The proportion of children in the United States who are overweight is greater now than ever before. Obesity rates among children have been increasing since the 1970's, and during that same time period, the proportion of children living in suburbs has increased. Whereas children in rural areas tend to have outdoor active chores and children in cities often walk to school or other places they need to go, children in suburbs are typically driven everywhere. Thus the increase in childhood obesity is probably due mainly to the suburbanization of America and the associated decrease in the opportunities children have for exercise."
WORDS: 639 TIME: 00:45:00 (稍微宽松的计时)
In the newsletter, the author concludes that the increasing childhood obesity results from decreased opportunity of exercise caused by increase in suburbanization of America. The author attempts to demonstrate his argument through the coincidence of obesity rate growth and the increasing population of suburban children, together with comparison of the amount of outdoor activity among children of various area. Unfortunately, via thorough review of the reasoning procedure, I cast doubt on the validity of the conclusion.
To begin with, the author's conclusion relies on the threshold assumption that the obesity rate of suburban children is greater than that of children dwelling in rural areas and metropolis, which lacks of convincing evidence. As has been pointed out in the newsletter, the obesity rate of children has been increasing constantly while the component of the whole group under investigation has been left out of consideration. Entirely possible is that the obesity rate of metropolitan children or children in the countryside is for higher than that of suburban children, lending little support for the conclusion that suburbanization is responsible for childhood obesity. To bolster this viewpoint, the author should at a minimum provide a pie chart displaying the percentages of overweight children in different areas.
Furthermore, the author has failed to take other possible reason for childhood obesity into consideration. Although the increase in obesity rates coincidence with the process of suburbanization of America, it hardly implies definite cause-and-result relationship between the two events. It is equally possible that the prevalence of junk food, such at fast food or Coke, with little nutrition and high rate of calories, salt and fat, undermines the normal intake of nutrition of suburban children. Or the breakneck speed of modern life drives increasing number of mothers from their homes and married women have to take jobs to support the family. Therefore, the mothers have little time to prepare food and the ready-made food, most of which is unhealthy, dominates the dinner table. Additionally, as the recent advances in medical research has informed me, obesity may be attributed to genetic factors, pertaining to either inherit or pollution. Certain people contain genetic defects may pass these genes to the offspring, increasing the phenotypic ratio of obesity. As for the pollution, the toxic compounds released by the factories or mobile veichles as well as the radiation emitted by some domestic application including computer screen or TV sets may cause genetic changes, which may affect the genes regulate the body weight or metabolism of fat. Therefore, without excluding the numerous confusing factors, the author could by no means convince me that the suburbanization is the main cause.
Finally, the analysis on the amount of exercise among children of various regions could hardly sustain careful examination. Lacking of strict quantitative standards to evaluate exact amount of exercises, it is entirely possible that the procedure of walking to school consume surprisingly low amount of calories for the distance between schools and homes is short. Or the outdoor activities of children in rural areas are mild exercises such as bird watching. On the other hand, it is entirely possible that the suburban children, although they tend to drive to their destination, seem more active in sports. As common sense informs me, the expenses for gyms, yoga, football or swimming in the sports center are remarkably lower in small towns than that of large cities. With equipment more advanced than that of the countryside. Therefore, it is likely that children of suburban regions have more opportunities than other children, contradicting the author's conclusion.
In sum, the conclusion seems unsound to me because of the flowed reasoning procedure. To bolster the conclusion, the author should at a minimum provide detailed investigation of the obesity ratio among children of diverse regions, exclude other interrupting factors and figure out a set of quantitative standards for evaluating the exercise amount.
[ 本帖最后由 shuwenying 于 2007-11-20 15:58 编辑 ] |
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