argument65 [Jet小组]第7次作业

leftkissUID: 2347956

Argument 65 the following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

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The argument suggests that the multiple cheese shop should accumulate energy for the domestic cheese while decrease the stocking of imported kinds of cheese, according to a vague survey conducted by the World magazine and inaccurate selling situation from the newest stores. Consequently, taking the flaws in the paragraph into account, the advice seem to be little wise, let alone the accept it. The logical defects suffered in this argument would present in details.

The threshold problem is the effect of the survey. We know little about it except the organization that makes the poll and the basic attitude from partly subscribers. However, the arguer should provide us more information on the degree of World magazine's authority because that presents the credibility of the survey result. Moreover, the detailed information about the subscribers such as the relationship between the subscribing and the purchasing of cheese especially the brands of the cheese and so forth are also needed, considering a probability that the readers of this magazine may not found in cheese or they are just a small part in the shores' consumers. If these are the cases, any inferences drew from the survey are unconvincing.

Secondly, the causal relationship between the best-selling cheeses at the newest store and the profits of the chain stores has not been illustrating at all. The best-selling cheeses brands in the newest store are all domestic from Wisconsin, however, we could not draw a rush conclusion that if other stores would benefits from domestic cheeses though an oversimplified cloning the policy at the newest one. Because that the arguer gave us no further information about the relationship of the two factors. There exist the possibilities which lead to the same result. Perhaps the newest one adopts some sale promotions like discounts and largess on the domestic kind cheeses which make the selling more lubricated. Or perhaps the dwellers around the newest store prefer the domestic cheeses due to their traditional habits. If one of the situations is true, only simple generalization would not make profits, whereas, may result in economic losing considering that many consumers are fancy in the imported cheeses. The relationship seems to be casual.

Thirdly, even assuming that the poll made by the world magazine is efficient enough and the newest can present overall stores very well, whether the generalization of the method in this argument would make money or not is still suspect. The arguer did not provide adequate evidences to demonstrate the profits in the newest store come from the selling of domestic cheeses. Perhaps the amount of domestic brands cheeses is bigger than the imported ones; however, the store make much more benefits from the exotic rather the domestics. Without ruling out other probabilities like above, the suggestion in the argument is not cogent.

In sum, the argument is incredible. To corroborate it, the author must provide sufficient evidence to show the causal relationship of the newest and the whole chain stores, ruling out all the other possibilities lying in the way. What's more, the detailed information about the survey and the subscribers of the magazine, as well as, the finance situation of the newest store are all necessary.

[ 本帖最后由 leftkiss 于 2008-2-21 20:56 编辑 ]