Argument147【cashing for 6小组】第二次作业 by answer35

answer35UID: 2463414

147. The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

WORDS:505       TIME: 00:60:00         


       The arguer comes to the conclusion that during next few months the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically. To justify the conclusion, the arguer cites the result of recent survey showing the players like games that provide lifelike graphics. However, the argument ignores contain several important concerns which must be address to prove. As it stands, the argument suffers from several criti c al defects as follows.
       To begin with, the survey cited by the arguer contains a series of flaws by a lack of sufficient that we call the reliability and general ity of the survey into question. The arguer provides no evidence that the number of video-game players is statistically sufficient. For instance, perhaps if 2,000 players were surveyed but only 20 responded, the conclusion would be highly suspect. Even if the respondents of survey are adequate, the argument also provides no information regarding the respondents were representation of all the video-game players in general. That is to say, they surveyed maybe merely involves the respondents which like to provide advance lifelike graphic games. It is entirely possible that people inclined such games were more willing to respond to the survey than other people were. If so, without better evidence that the survey is reliable and generalizable, the arguer cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusions that the sales trend is likely to be reversed.
       Even if the survey is reliable and generalizable, the arguer does not necessarily indicate that people between 10 and 25 years old are likely to play video games. The argument contains no evidence to support this assumption. Lacking such evidence it is equally possible that they have so much homework to do that they have no enough time to play video games. Or it is entirely possible that aside from study they have little interest in playing video games. Or perhaps, there are other things more attract them to play , for example football or baseball. Without more information about the interest of this age-group, it is difficult to come to arguer's conclusion that this age-group most likely to play video games.
       Even if the arguer substantiate foregoing assumptions, the arguer views the lifelike graphics and most up-to-date computer games as the major factor exerts a determinative influence on the good-sales. However, the arguer is unaware of the consideration other possibilities maybe influence the sales of Whirlwind video games. It is entirely possible that the video game players would take more account to excitement of games that due to low sales of video games. Or perhaps, the players have little interest in the theme of these video games that they would not buy these games. It is also possible that the players are favor of games which design by other firms, and then the sales of Whirlwind video games actually would not increase. If so, failing to consider other possibilities would further weaken the argument.
       To sum up, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. Because the evidence cited in analysis does not lend strong support to what arguer maintains .

[ 本帖最后由 answer35 于 2008-3-9 22:08 编辑 ]

ncnysUID: 2347325

首先还是有些语法错误,建议背几篇北美的argu,你的基本论证句子就会比较熟,写起来就游刃有余也不会花太多时间了..

然后从论证内容来讲,你的第一段论述调查不可靠,第二段论述10-25岁的人不一定会玩游戏,第三段讲feature不一定会带来好的销售..但是你觉不觉得这几点不一定是攻击这个论题的关键?

从分析这个题目着手,它的结论是什么?W家的销售量会增高.为了证明这个结论,它举了几个论点去支撑: 1、做了个玩家调查,说某feature是他们最看重的;2,W刚做了很多这种feature的游戏;3,W针对10-25岁的青少年大做广告宣传,这些人最可能玩游戏;所以得出结论,W的销售量会在几个月内激增.

从这个题目的论点来看,它可以被攻击的几个点在哪? 1,那个调查不一定可信,这样这种feature根本就不是玩家最重视的,就可以把之后的所有结论推翻,所以这是个最薄弱的点,把它推翻,整个题目就站不住脚了,所以这个最重要的攻击点就放在第一段; 2,就算承认调查的可信性,W做了这种游戏也不一定畅销;也许其它公司推出了更多,也许其它公司的更好玩,也许其它公司的更便宜;3,就算W家的游戏质量各方面跟其它公司相差不大或者更好,它的广告策略也不一定能吸引顾客;首先,10-25岁的人不一定能看到广告,也许他们不常看电视;其次,就算他们经常看到广告,也不一定被吸引,也许其它公司推出试玩的策略,更吸引玩家;再次,10-25岁的人不一定有收入,就算他们喜欢,他们家人不喜欢不让买也不行;4,就算以上全部都奏效了,W的销售量在几个月内上升也不一定可能,也许经济衰退,等等...

加油哈!