argument65 kito组，关于酸奶销售，大家都来看一看

gaojiehahaUID: 2149729

Argument65:
The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
'For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.'
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提纲：
1、由几个新店子的销售推出整体的销售情况不具代表性
2、调查的对象是订户，不能代表所有顾客
3、去年的情况不能代表今年
4、主席的结论太武断
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正文：（474words）
The president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States recommends that the best way to increase income is to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate on domestic cheeses. To support this recommendation the memo relies on the sales situation last year and a survey by Cheese of the World magazine. However, the recommendation relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands.

First, the argument assumes that the best-selling trend at newest stores reflects the general best-selling trend at a chain of cheese stores. Yet, the stores' president fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. Absent such assumption, it is likely that due to the specialty of newest shores, domestic cheese are the best seller. In that case, the sales situation at the newest stores cannot represent the total sales situation in a chain of cheese stores. Thus, it is unconvincing to draw the conclusion that best-selling cheese at the stores are all domestic.

Additionally, the stores' president cites a survey by Cheese of the World magazine to conclude that increasing citizens prefer domestic cheeses to imported cheeses. However, the president makes a mistake for that the survey is among subscribers, subscribers cannot represent the whole potential cheese buyers. Perhaps subscribes are merely a small portion of the whole cheese buyers. Thereby it is hasty to say that the whole cheese buyers choose to buy domestic cheeses according to the survey to the cheeses subscribers.

Even assuming that domestic cheeses is the best seller at last year, it cannot infer that the sales amount of domestic cheese in the following years will large as last year. Fashion of cheese taste varies so quick that what prevails last year is not always fashion next year. Until the president provides evidence to support the assumption that domestic cheese will prevail in the following years, I remain skeptical about the president's recommendation.

Finally, even if domestic cheese will prevail at next several years, the president is arbitrary to conclude that the best way to improve profits is to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. Perhaps although imported cheeses' sales amount is not high, the profit of imported cheese is comparatively high whereas perhaps domestic cheeses' sales amount is high but the profit is low. Thus the president's assertion is too rough.

In sum, the recommendation is not well supported. To bolster the recommendation the president must provide better evidence that (1) domestic cheese is the best seller among a chain of cheese stores; (2) domestic cheese will prevail in following years; (3) imported cheeses are not popular and not profitable. To better assess the argument I would need more information about cheese's profitability over a longer time period, and about the extent to which domestic cheeses accounts for any such profitability.

智恩UID: 2160717

提纲：
1、由几个新店子的销售推出整体的销售情况不具代表性
2、调查的对象是订户，不能代表所有顾客
3、去年的情况不能代表今年（这点没想到，学习！）
4、主席的结论太武断
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正文：（474words）
The president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States recommends that the best way to increase income is to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate on domestic cheeses. To support this recommendation the memo relies on the sales situation last year and a survey by Cheese of the World magazine. However, the recommendation relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands.

First, the argument assumes that the best-selling trend at newest stores reflects the general best-selling trend at a chain of cheese stores. Yet, the stores' president fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. Absent such assumption, it is likely that due to the specialty （是想说特点吗？其实可以直接表达成因为它是新开的店，可能搞了促销活动，所以卖得好）of newest shores, domestic cheese are the best seller. In that case, the sales situation at the newest stores cannot represent the total sales situation in a chain of cheese stores. Thus, it is unconvincing to draw the conclusion that best-selling cheese at the stores are all domestic.

Additionally, the stores' president cites a survey by Cheese of the World magazine to conclude that increasing citizens prefer domestic cheeses to imported cheeses. However, the president makes a mistake for that the survey is among subscribers, subscribers cannot represent the whole potential cheese buyers. Perhaps subscribes are merely a small portion of the whole cheese buyers. （还有可能是喜欢进口cheese的消费者没有寄回问卷，这样可以多写一句）Thereby it is hasty to say that the whole cheese buyers choose to buy domestic cheeses according to the survey to the cheeses subscribers.

Even assuming that domestic cheeses（去掉s） is the best seller at last year, it cannot infer that the sales amount of domestic cheese in the following years will large as last year. Fashion of cheese taste varies so quick（quickly） that what prevails（靓词！） last year is not always fashion next year. Until（Unless） the president provides evidence to support the assumption that domestic cheese will prevail in the following years, I remain skeptical about the president's recommendation.

Finally, even if domestic cheese will prevail at next several years, the president is arbitrary to conclude that the best way to improve profits is to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. Perhaps although imported cheeses' sales amount is not high, the profit of imported cheese is comparatively high whereas perhaps domestic cheeses' sales amount is high but the profit is low. Thus the president's assertion is too rough.

In sum, the recommendation is not well supported. To bolster the recommendation the president must provide better evidence that (1) domestic cheese is the best seller among a chain of cheese stores; (2) domestic cheese will prevail in following years; (3) imported cheeses are not popular and not profitable. To better assess the argument I would need more information about cheese's profitability over a longer time period, and about the extent to which domestic cheeses accounts for any such profitability.

这篇文章真的写得不错，很多词也找了替换的了，比如popular，fashion，prevail，句型也有变化，这样写下去，argument一定能得满分的，我觉得。

gaojiehahaUID: 2149729

specialty （是想说特点吗？其实可以直接表达成因为它是新开的店，可能搞了促销活动，所以卖得好）

哦，我是想说特殊性来着，particularity.当时写的时候没想到特殊的例子，所以偷懒用个泛泛的词。你举的可能性不错！:)

关于我的文章，我发现现在是越来越不知怎么写。每次发文章之前都觉得写的真烂。和以前的文章相比，好像都是原先一些重复的句子，没有什么创新。感觉总这样写，没提高啊！不知你们大家有没有相同的感受？大家交流交流！

[ 本帖最后由 gaojiehaha 于 2006-1-10 21:56 编辑 ]