argument59 同主题写作第二期.互拍.指教.

chn_tommyUID: 2108716

The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity—that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."

提纲；
1．        这六年世界流感流行的发生和太阳的黑子活动的剧烈不一定有因果关系
2．        即使有因果关系, 作者也不能肯定的说世界流感流行的发生是由于太阳黑子剧烈活动所产生的过多的solar energy造成的。也就是说完全有可能太阳黑子剧烈活动所引发的其它事件导致了世界流感流行的发生
3．        作者未说明particular risk 和prolonged exposure的具体程度

This article’s conclusion is that the persistent long time of sunshine will lead to flu to the people who at particular risk for the flu. To bolster this conclusion, the author cites two evidences: the medical records which reveal there were worst flu epidemics in six particular years during past 300 years, and an evidence about that sun had heavy sunspot activity in all these particular years. At first glance reasonably though, close scrutiny of each of these evidences, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the conclusion.
To begin with, the article assumes unfairly that the heavy sunspot activity results in the global flu epidemics. The author fails to inform us the clear evidence about that the breaking out of the global flu epidemics was due to the heavy sunspot activity indeed. Perhaps the breaking out of the global flu epidemics was caused by some kinds of animals that have the global migratory behavior. Perhaps it resulted from activities of human beings. It is also perhaps that the reason was the severe air pollution and these two facts occurring in the particular years were merely coincident. Without ruling out these alternative possibilities, the author cannot project that the heavy sunspot activity led to the global flu epidemics.
Even if the heavy sunspot activity resulted in the worldwide flu epidemics, the author points out that it is just the solar energy that produced from the sunspot activity leads to the flu epidemics of the world. However, it is entirely possible that some kind of patron produced from the heavy sunspot causes the worldwide flu epidemics, rather than solar energy. Therefore, the author cannot make any sound conclusions to the reason of the global flu epidemics based on the heavy sunspot activity, since the article fails to explain this possibility.
Thirdly, the author does not point out the definite level of “risk for the flu” and “prolonged exposure to sun”. Without this information, it is not clear that what kind of people are really at particular risk for the flu claimed in the article, and how long the “prolonged time” is that the author indicates.
In sum, this article is logically flawed and therefore unconvincing as it stands. To buttress the article’s conclusion, the author must provide the evidence about that the worldwide flu epidemics indeed result from the solar energy that produced from the heavy sunspot activity. What’s more, the author must also assert definitely what kind of people are the people at particular risk for the flu, and how long the time that these people exposure to the sun is may lead to the flu.

chn_tommyUID: 2108716

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