argument59 同主题写作。限时完成，语言比较单调

我的马甲UID: 2177806

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
WORDS：455          TIME：0:29:32          DATE：2006-2-3

The author draws a recommendation that those who are at particular risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to she Sun. By a careful scrutiny, the process of reasoning is open to doubt, and reveals several critical flaws as follows.

To begin with, the author unreasonably claims that much solar energy accounts for the six worst worldwide flu epidemics in the past 300 years. In the article, we can only find that the years when those six worldwide flu epidemics happened are just those ones when much heavy sunspot activity took place on the Sun, but these two events were just synchronous to each other and that is all. It is entirely possible that other factors resulting in those prevailing worst flu trends, such as some severer virus are prevailing at that time and the like. What is more, the period of heavy sunspot activity is 11years, and why other years when there were still heavy sunspot activities did not experience such worst flu epidemics? Without ruling out other factors which are also can result the flu epidemics, the author cannot draw such a causal -- relationship.

Furthermore, the author fails to provide the sufficiency and credibility of the data available about medical records. A period of 300 years is long enough for some important data be lost by human race. Especially hundreds of years ago, the method of recording was not as developed as that at present, and perhaps a myriad of worldwide flu epidemics were not recorded. Besides, the past 300 years witness some worldwide wars among countless countries, which, to some degrees, made lot of records destroyed. In addition, maybe those worst flu trends unrecorded just happened in the years when the sunspot activity is normal as usual. In this matter, it is not -- rooted to state that sunspot activity is the reason for flu epidemics.

Last, the recommendation is neither sufficient nor necessary. First, based on mentioned above that maybe other factors are actually the main reasons accounting for those six flu epidemics, avoiding prolonged exposure to the Sun is not enough. Other method, like avoiding the occasion when people are likely to contact those serve virus, may be also vital. In another sense, those who are inclined to get flu may have the poor health condition. If so, the best way to avoid flu is to take exercise, improving the physical condition. Even in this matter, maybe proper exposure to the Sun may is helpful rather than harm.

To sum up, the recommendation in this article is unconvincing. To bolster that the recommendation is valid, the author should provide necessary evidence about the sunspot activity is the true cause for flu epidemics. Otherwise, we cannot accept it.

[ 本帖最后由 我的马甲 于 2006-2-3 10:37 编辑 ]

果小冻UID: 208370

占先.下午学习

TonyDaisyUID: 2180082

楼主是不是太谦虚了点哦，我觉得限时有这效果不错了啊，真的，我仔细读了的。比我的说得清楚多了，再说阿狗嘛，语言也不是重点，把主要错误分析到位应该比较重要哈？
过分谦虚可是  骄傲  哦:D

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
WORDS：455          TIME：0:29:32          DATE：2006-2-3

The author draws a recommendation that those who are at particular risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to she Sun. By a careful scrutiny, the process of reasoning is open to doubt, and reveals several critical flaws as follows.

To begin with, the author unreasonably claims that much solar energy accounts for the six worst worldwide flu epidemics in the past 300 years. In the article, we can only find that the years when those six worldwide flu epidemics happened are just those ones when much heavy sunspot activity took place on the Sun, but these two events were just synchronous to each other and that is all. It is entirely possible that other factors resulting in those prevailing worst flu trends, such as some severer virus are prevailing at that time and the like. What is more, the period of heavy sunspot activity is 11years, and why other years when there were still heavy sunspot activities did not experience such worst flu epidemics? Without ruling out other factors which are also can result the flu epidemics, the author cannot draw such a causal -- relationship.
[这段还是说的比较清楚了，我想写这个思路就是表达不出来，看了你的蛮有启发的。]

Furthermore, the author fails to provide the sufficiency and credibility of the data available about medical records. A period of 300 years is long enough for some important data be lost by human race. Especially hundreds of years ago, the method of recording was not as developed as that at present, and perhaps a myriad of worldwide flu epidemics were not recorded. Besides, the past 300 years witness some worldwide wars among countless countries, which, to some degrees, made lot of records destroyed. In addition, maybe those worst flu trends unrecorded just happened in the years when the sunspot activity is normal as usual. In this matter, it is not -- rooted to state that sunspot activity is the reason for flu epidemics.
[这段的某些内容放在上段可能更合适，比如war那个，更适合解释大范围的流感爆发吧？看完这段才发现上一段的内容还是有点问题...上段的TS是说二者没有因果联系，
另外建议先说资料不可信，再说二者没有因果联系，把这两段的顺序换一下]

Last, the recommendation is neither sufficient nor necessary. First, based on mentioned above that maybe other factors are actually the main reasons accounting for those six flu epidemics, avoiding prolonged exposure to the Sun is not enough. Other method, like avoiding the occasion when people are likely to contact those serve virus, may be also vital. In another sense, those who are inclined to get flu may have the poor health condition. If so, the best way to avoid flu is to take exercise, improving the physical condition. Even in this matter, maybe proper exposure to the Sun may is helpful rather than harm.
[这段跟我的思路结构都很像，看起来很“顺眼”，呵呵~如果非要说的话可以对他因再扩展点，除了锻炼身体，还有什么注意气温变化提前准备啊，健康的生活习惯啊，因为流感传染性强嘛，之类的，在小小的作文里说过了:L又来碎碎念一遍]


To sum up, the recommendation in this article is unconvincing. To bolster that the recommendation is valid, the author should provide necessary evidence about the sunspot activity is the true cause for flu epidemics. Otherwise, we cannot accept it.

[寒，改个作文都要改那么久，我的效率...无语中...:L]

果小冻UID: 208370

The author draws a recommendation that those who are at particular risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to she Sun. By a careful scrutiny, the process of reasoning is open to doubt, and reveals several critical flaws as follows.[这个开头很简明，但是我现在迷糊，开头是不是应该把主要错误简要的提出来呢]

To begin with, the author unreasonably claims that much solar energy accounts for the six worst worldwide flu epidemics in the past 300 years.[ In the article, we can only find that the years when those six worldwide flu epidemics happened are just those ones when much heavy sunspot activity took place on the Sun, but these two events were just synchronous to each other and that is all.表达的好清楚啊。我的就惨了] It is entirely possible that other factors resulting in those prevailing worst flu trends, such as some severer virus are prevailing at that time and the like. What is more, the period of heavy sunspot activity is 11years, and why other years when there were still heavy sunspot activities did not experience such worst flu epidemics? [这个我怎么没有想到呢]Without ruling out other factors which are also can result the flu epidemics, the author cannot draw such a causal -- relationship.

Furthermore, the author fails to provide the sufficiency and credibility of the data available about medical records. [这个中心概括的好。]A period of 300 years is long enough for some important data be lost by human race. Especially hundreds of years ago, the method of recording was not as developed as that at present, and perhaps a myriad of worldwide flu epidemics were not recorded. Besides, the past 300 years witness some worldwide wars among countless countries, which, to some degrees, made lot of records destroyed. In addition, maybe those worst flu trends unrecorded just happened in the years when the sunspot activity is normal as usual. In this matter, it is not -- rooted to state that sunspot activity is the reason for flu epidemics.[这个段落说的很清楚，层次和表达都很好。学习]

Last, the recommendation is neither sufficient nor necessary. First, based on mentioned above that maybe other factors are actually the main reasons accounting for those six flu epidemics, avoiding prolonged exposure to the Sun is not enough. Other method, like avoiding the occasion when people are likely to contact those serve virus, may be also vital. In another sense, those who are inclined to get flu may have the poor health condition. If so, the best way to avoid flu is to take exercise, improving the physical condition. Even in this matter, maybe proper exposure to the Sun may is helpful rather than harm.

To sum up, the recommendation in this article is unconvincing. To bolster that the recommendation is valid, the author should provide necessary evidence about the sunspot activity is the true cause for flu epidemics. Otherwise, we cannot accept it.[真的觉得你写的很好，分析的透彻，语言也不乱。比我的好的太多了]

yogurt4UID: 198389

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