Argument59 dganggang(kito) 一开始写得不好 但问题都找准了 修改稿

dganggangUID: 2125101

提纲：时间顺序不等于因果
            太阳活动也不等于就是太阳能引起的感冒
           无法解释其他活动频繁年为何没有类似流感发生

The article in the health section tries to convince us that prolonged exposure will bring flu to people. His evidence is based on the so called six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years, which were all with heavy sunspot activity. However, the author's argument is built upon some logical fallacies between his conclusion and evidence.

The major problem within his inference is mistaking the simultaneous events for a necessarily logical relationship between the flu epidemics and the sunspot activity. As a common sense, we can not easily conclude that two events have a causal correlation if they happened at the same time. The author gives us no specific details and information to prove that it's right because of heavy sunspot activity that caused the five flue epidemics. Furthermore, there will be several other possible factors which will lead to the epidemics like war, natural disasters or famines. Even assuming the heavy sunspot activity really has something to do with the epidemics, however, it is absolutely unscientific to blame all the responsibilities on it alone.

Furthermore, even if the heavy sunspot activity is actually the main reason for the occurrence of the six flu epidemics, the author still is too hasty to ask people to avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun. According to his logic, if the Earth received more solar energy than in normal years, people may take certain risks. Nevertheless, it's far from the real fact that usually the longer period is with normal solar energy when people get exposure to the Sun. What's more, nothing has been exemplified that the extent of the solar energy is the cause for the flu because the heavy sunspot activities may bring along other natural phenomena and changes, which enjoy the equal chances to lead to the epidemics based on the author’s primary assumption.

Last but not the least, the author neglects another significant element in the deduction from his evidence to the judgment. There should be more time when the earth received more solar energy, even if significantly overwhelmed, which will have the same possibilities to experience the break out of the flu epidemics, due to the author’s basic assumption. Nonetheless, it seems that nothing really happened during all the other time, which is again overlooked by the author. He gives us no explanations for why all these years which had the same problems but witnessed different results. Therefore, this easy but indispensable thought also helps to clarify the problem that the heavy sunspot activity should not be the triggers of all the six flu epidemics.

In sum, the author fails to find more aspects of reasonable evidence for the six flu epidemics, partially, he makes a wrong judgment to blame the simultaneous fact as a major cause. Moreover, he extends this logic to a wider background thus advises us to avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun in order to escape from flu. The author has to look into more historical alternatives for the flu epidemics and reconsider his suggestion through some scientifically medical research.