Argument73 是否应转型出租汽车

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT73 - The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
WORDS: 287          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-2-23

1)        从售车到租车的转变不完全取决于市场，还要考虑其是否适合代理商
2)        即使转变是合适的，还要考虑利润是否合适，毕竟市场不代表利润
3)        人数不代表市场，车数或说销售额才代表市场
4)        人数不一定会按预期的增加

The opinion of the author is hardly convincing due to flimsy reasoning. Then I'll give several points of fallacious ones according to the statement.

Firstly, lacking more specific search about the change for selling to leasing, it is impossible to receive the informed recommendation. Besides the possession of the market, there still a lot for us to decide if the leasing is suitable for the dealership according to the financial factor, staff factor, equipment factor and too many other factors involving into the change.

Secondly, even if the conversion is proper for dealership, we should still consider if the profit corresponds the market proportion. Perhaps the selling profit is too much more profitable than the leasing which lead to the former total higher.

Next, although the author highly emphasizes the number of people, yet he or she simply equates market proportion with the number of people, which is unwarranted. According to the fact, there're many people own several cars and what is significant is that it is the number of cars sold or leased but not the number of people bespeaks the market proportion.

Another point is that the deduction about number of people buying and leasing cars is defective. Since the poor information given makes it hard to predict whether new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, the conclusion of more market possession for leasing will be presumptuous.

As the four mentioned above, it can be inferred that if we can get more to know that change is not only profitable but also appropriate, the profit depends on market possession, the market proportion relies on the number of people and the number of people leasing cars will definitely rise, we could finally accept advice put forward.

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