Argument109.第一篇!请帮忙看看怎么才能更简练。我总是想得太多，写停不下来。

阳木UID: 2115994

提纲：
1．（急于概括、因果无关）分别论述两城特点，指出错误。
2．（错误类比）他们俩的具体情况不同，仅因为C、P城市颁布的法规对房价的相同影响就判定房价不受法规的影响不可信。
3．（错类）即使法规对C、P都没有影响，但m时20年以后的事，情况也可能有很多不同，也可能其他地方定了法规后都受了影响。（样本不足）
TOPIC: ARGUMENT109 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper.

"Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably. Chestnut City, which is about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never established any laws that limit new building construction. So it is clear that laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices. So if Maple City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these laws will have no effect on average housing prices."
WORDS: 640          TIME: 1:00:29          DATE: 2006-2-26

In this argument, the arguer hastily conclude that establishing new laws in Maple City, which limit new building construction, will also have no effect on average housing prices, after comparing with Pine City and Chestnut City. However, this argument suffers from several fallacies after further reflections, such as implicit causal relationship, false analogy, and hasty generalization.

To begin with, the author did not provide enough evidences to show the causal relationship between the average housing prices and the laws in both Pine City and Chestnut City. From the argument we can only conclude that the average housing prices in Pine City increased after the laws of limiting new buildings' number had established. It may just be a coincidence. Maybe at the time when laws were carried out, the lands for building architectures were already very limited, and the unbalance between people needs and real lands made the prices go up. It is equally possible that Pine City is on an island without good traffic. So we can imagine how costly it will be if we have to carry all the materials there by ships or planes. While for Chestnut City, there can also be some other reasons for the increase in average housing prices even though no laws was established. For example, Chestnut City is a main city in the country and many people worked there needed place to live. Or maybe, the economy in the city is flourishing every years and the cost of things kept on rising including the housing prices. Without ruling out all these possibilities for rising housing prices, no conclusion can be made about the relationships between laws and prices for houses.

Also, the most important false in this argument is false analogy. As we know, there is nothing exactly the same, not to mention two totally different cities. There is much dissimilarity between the cities according to the history, the location, the economy, and the people. Just like what I mentioned above, it is possible that Pine City is a place with limited land and poor traffic conditions, where houses is strongly needed; while Chestnut City is a big prosperous city with many houses available but a higher cost for everything. If no more detailed information can be given about the important similarities between the two cities, the conclusions made from their rising prices for houses are highly suspected.

Besides all, Maple City is a city that can be totally different from Pine City and Chestnut City, and 20 years is such a long time. Nothing remains the same over extended period of time or from place to place. Granted that the laws did have no effect on average housing prices in Pine and Chestnut City, it does not indicates that is will have no effect in Maple City. What if Maple City is a new city with many people moving in at the moment, and the need for houses are very strong? If new building constructions are limited for this moment, supplies will possibly be shorter than the needs, and the price will surly increase naturally. And we all know the populations in the world are increasing, so the need for house maybe quite different from that of 20 years ago. Anyway, even if everything really did not change much, two samples are far from enough to really get to a conclusion. Thus, whether the laws will have effect on average housing prices or not in Maple City is still unknown before more investigations are made.

To sum up the argument is not persuasive as it stands since there are only two unreasonable comparisons. Before the arguer really come to a conclusion, more detailed researches are needed to rule out other possibilities about housing prices increase, and point out the similarities among the three cities, and the possible changes after 20 years.