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发表于 2006-3-17 20:09:44
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT6 - The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
In this argument, the arguer concludes that their proposed club, the C note, in Monroe (M) would be a highly profitable enterprise simply by his thin and weak evidence. A close scrutiny will enable us to find out that this argument suffers from several critical flaws.
First and foremost, the argument rests on the gratuitous assumption that their proposed club C note would have the local market all to itself only because of the nearest jazz club being 65 miles away. However this is not necessarily the case. First the arguer neglects the possibility that there would be many other jazz clubs in M other than C note, which would be the rival to C note. In addition, if C note was not accepted by its potential consumers for its bad service or out-of-date jazz music, these consumers would go to other clubs, even drive a car for 65 miles to the nearest club mentioned in the argument.
In the second place, the popularity of jazz in M is merely based on the Monroe’s jazz festival last summer and a radio program in M. Nevertheless, the fact that 100000 people attended the festival does not lend support to the popularity of jazz in M. A large part of these 100000 people might come from other towns rather than M. People from M who attended the festival may be not more than 100 compared with a town with 100000 residents. Moreover, the highest rate of the radio program called "Jazz Nightly" cannot be a sufficient evidence to support the popularity. The fact that people listen to radio game does not mean people will go to jazz club.
Another fallacy undermining the argument is that the nationwide study cannot be compared with the situation of M. The arguer assumes that the characteristics of a nation apply to everywhere in it. However there is no guarantee that this is the case. Maybe the jazz fan who spends 1000 dollars on jazz is not from M, and the fan in M is not that rich.
In sum, the argument is not well reasoned and persuasive as it stands, and the evidence provided in the analysis does not lend strong support what the arguer maintains. To bolster the argument, the arguer must provide more statistical survey and evidence about the popularity of Monroe.
以前写的一篇,有拍必回!
[ 本帖最后由 WeOn 于 2006-3-19 14:37 编辑 ] |
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