The argument concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. The arguer cites the result of a study that a group of 25 infants, who were most likely to have been conceived in early autumn, showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli to bolster the conclusion. However, the argument suffers from several following flaws which make it inconvincible.
To begin with, the reliability of the study is open to doubt. For one thing, the number of the infants involved in the study is not large enough to truly reflect the overall population of infants. For another thing, the arguer unfairly equals the signs of mild distress the infants showed in the study when they were exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice to shyness. Common sense tells us that people are very likely to feel distress or depressed when people are exposed to unfamiliar stimuli, especially considering they are infants. Therefore, the study lends little support to the arguer's claim.
Another assumption to be considered is that melatonin contributes to shyness in the infants. Based on the argument, we are informed that the hormone melatonin would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. It is well known that the daylight in late autumn and winter are much shorter than that in the early autumn. Then we can ask: How many infants were born in late autumn or winter? Did the infants who were born in late autumn or winter also show shyness? These questions are worth considering. Without offering the detailed information, the claim that the melatonin does cause to the shyness is unconvincing.
Finally, the arguer fails to take into other factors which are responsible for shyness. No sufficient information is provided that the environment the 25 infants have been lived in is identical. It is entirely possible that shyness of these teenagers is attributable to the environment they live, such as family members and living habits. For example, if the infant lived in a family where his/her parents always had to work far from home, the infant was likely to become shy as result of lacking adequate communication and social abilities to communicate with others. They maybe catch a habit to study alone and prefer to chat with their pets or dolls. If it is the case, the scenario would serve to undermine the arguer's conclusion.
In sum, the argument is not persuasive as it stands through the above analysis.