argumeng提纲21－40【越洋农场】第四周慢组

huhu_zsuUID: 2183490

21                                                      ．
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up（被抑制的） customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
1，Will the overcoat still be demanded?
for five years：人们的喜好会变。是否依然流行？？？需求会变。
major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat：
因为什么原因不再做了？？也许正是证明了coat的不再流行。
主要竞争者的退出，应该引起注意，他们不会笨得明明知道有钱赚而淡出此行，
2，be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca
   he price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years
   以偏概全       
Customers would simply turn to those with steady prices or lower degrees of increase.
购买力下降的可能：The consumers’ income has not kept pace with escalating prices.

3，our company profits will increase."
    五年不做，技术设计是否跟的上时代的步伐。市场对公司的品牌陌生了，广告要重新做，公司对市场陌生了，调查和分销点要重新来，这些都会影响公司是否赢利。Their old experiences might not take effect.
仅仅有原材料是不要条件，非充分条件。（且原材料是否会带来高成本？？原材料的供应是否有保障，会不会想五年前一样，影响公司的生产）
     其他竞争者。

22                                                                              The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.

"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."
核心问题：究竟S city 对高价的需求有无增长？？增长了多少？
    1．Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses―――
不代表S city的情况。
基数是多少？增长快不代表销售量大。
2．family incomes in Steel City have risen——
原来基数是多少？如果原来就很少。根本对买高价房没有贡献。
即使增长了，不代表够钱买房。
即使钱够了，不代表市民会买。
3．the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent,
人口增加不大表需求增加。不代表人们会转卖高价房。
也许多低价房的需求反而更大。
4．increase company profits.
使公司利润增加的影响因素有许多：市场（build fewer low-priced houses），竞争，成本（hire additional workers），销售。
5,a larger total number of houses than we did last year.
有这个必要吗？作者没有给数据。
23                                                                           A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
1，核心问题一：是否真正受欢迎，真正需要。
   nationwide study： dose not necessarily indicate that B city has the same situation.
  fewer home-cooked:many other choice beside seafood: fast-food, resterants supplying French food, Chinese food, Italy food….
  eating healthily:no evidence shows that their seafood is healthy food.
  非specializing restaurant是否已经满足了市民的需求。
2,核心问题二：是否会盈利：
increased by 30 percent：仅仅证明餐馆的利润好转，但有许多因素决定：经营，管理。服务，宣传，并不代表人们对海鲜的需求。也许是其他食物饮料的出售为餐馆带来了利润。
这种情况是否会持续下去？
no currently operating city restaurants that specialize
没有其他竞争对手可能正好说明seafood不那么受欢迎。
其他竞争者，如果知道这一行业赚钱，一定也会加入。

24                                                                              
The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.

"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."

1，In order to reduce costs
建一个新的工厂可以降低成本？？建设新的工厂需要买地，建造，搬迁是一笔不小的数目。而为此所花的钱很可能已经超过了节省的成本。
2，the largest adult population, staff our plant quickly and easily.
成年人的素质如何，是否适合他们提供的职位
该地区本身的就业率如何，成年人可能都已经就业
成年人是否会选择这个工作。
3，the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less，keep production costs low
    平均工资水平低并不代表可以付给员工的工资低。工资的高低与工作强度，时间又关系。
生产成本由许多因素决定，工资只是其中之一。（还有：原材料，管理，工艺，交通，税收）
4，first three years without paying city taxes
  享受这一待遇是否有其他条件。
   三年以后，工厂一样要发展的，但优惠政策不再有。
  可能正是证明了该地的投资环境不太好，
  其他地方是否有这样的优惠甚至更好的。

25                                                                            ，
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
1；build a golf course and resort hotel similar to
    当地是否需要这样的设施？如果不在需要，不但不能带来额外税收，反而因为建设和维持经营为政府带来负担。
2， the town of Ocean View  vs。Hopewell's
  两地的情况不同，如果说他们是在农村而我们在城市，或是他们在海边，我们在高原，这样都使得他们的成功不必然出现在我们这里。
我们不知道隔壁的旅游收是否就比我们多，如果说他们提高30%以后还没我们多的话，他们是否具备学习价值就可怀疑
3, tourism in Ocean View has increased new businesses have opened there

  并不一定是由于golf course和resort hotel 的建立。其他旅游资源也会有贡献。
   即使是，还要知道他对当地的经济发展的贡献有多大。


26                                                                            ，
The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda.

"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."
1，won three regional band competitions
   以前有无得过，与以前相比，可能总数减少了。
   导致获奖得其他原因：乐队加入了本身很强得人students' innate high gifts in music；竞争这水平不行，
2，rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved
    完全不是老师个人得功劳，学校得投资，他人得赞助。
3，general music education programs for the entire
    现在这个课程是否有人指导，该老师是否比他更适合。
管理全校性事务，他是否可以胜任？
4，such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school
   两地对音乐得重视不同，基础不同，该老师得熟悉程度不同，他得方法Saluda不一定奏效。

27                                                                            ，
The following appeared as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a company that manufactures automobiles.

"It has come to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that just moved into our state, is advertising job openings at salaries that are twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our employees have already left to work for Sparks. In order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to those Sparks pays its employees. Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in the future, because Sparks must staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state."
核心问题：是不是工资惹得祸？
1，        continue to lose employees in the future
员工流失的原因：工资，环境，职位，工种。
防止流失的其他手段。
2，        twice as high as those paid to our experienced assembly-line workers.
是什么工种？不具有可比性。
3，        left to work for Sparks.
有多少流向Sparks，也许他们流向我们的更多。
是因为工资更高才流失的吗？
流向其他工厂的人可能更多，且不是因为工资。
4，        Sparks must staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state."
究竟会不会建新工厂还没有定论。  
是否招我们的人，我们的人是否适合那样的工作。
是否也会复高工资

28                                                                            ，
The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.

"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each school day."
1，be absent from or late for school reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance
多种原因：性格time concept，生活习惯，家里住的远，父母的问题，学校家长的教育，交通堵塞，生病
2，eat a healthful breakfast
在学校就一定能吃的好？家里的也许更好。
3，in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary schools,
   Study只是针对5－12岁的儿童，并未证明secondary 的学生。
   且该调查本身可信度让人质疑：调查的范围（一个学校还是多个学校，仅仅100个人是否说明问题。）
   调查持续的时间：6个月稍短
   在学校吃的也许是住校生，迟到问题本来就少发生。
4，        此方法是否具有可行性（非自己想出）
   学校的早餐在上课前提供并在上课前结束，如果孩子会到学校吃早餐，自然是不会旷课迟到。而那些会旷课迟到的孩子也是不会到学校吃早餐的。这样学校的早餐是否能帮助孩子减少迟到旷课，都无法从论断的论据中看出来。


29                                                                            ，
When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.
1，Lake city  VS。Plainsville
   两地情况不同，不可贸然借鉴方法。论据没有提供资料说两市在空气、环境等问题上有何共同点，
2，This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, participate in the community's recycling program,
   关心回收问题不代表关注环境问题。LC的resident也许不再关心环境问题。
3 would guarantee
  保证她获胜的因素有许多：关心环境问题只是其中之一：财政政策，教育，以前的政绩，税收，个人魅力，降低犯罪率，竞争者的水平
4，        close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic
市民不一定欢迎这种做法，可能会引起一部分人的反对。反而对其参选造成负面影响。是否依然可以解决环境问题。

30                                                                            ，
According to information recently reported in the Eliottown Gazette, the number of people who travel to Eliottown has increased significantly over the past several years. So far this year over 100,000 people have arrived on flights to Eliottown's airport, compared with only 80,000 last year and 40,000 the year before. Eliottown's train station has received more than 50,000 passengers this year, compared with less than 40,000 last year and 20,000 the year before. Clearly tourism in Eliottown has been increasing, thanks to the new Central Park and Museum of Modern Art that opened last year. Therefore, the funding for the park and museum should be increased significantly.
1，flights to Eliottown's airport, train station has received more
可能是新被设立为一个交通枢纽（just work as an interchange），很多人要通过这里转机去其他地方。可能是有国际会议（广交会，高交会）在这里举行。可能是服务好转，收费降低，吸引来了更多的顾客。
并不代表来此地旅游的人多了。可能是来做生意的多了，
2，thanks to the new Central Park and Museum of Modern Art that opened last year.
没有证据证明人们是冲着museum和Art来的。还有许多其他可能的因素吸引旅游者：自然资源，人文资源，国际赛事（Olympic game& World cup）。即使吸引了，又吸引了多少人呢？也许贡献不是很大。
4, the funding for the park and museum should be increased significantly.
    是否需要拨款？如果本身已经盈利很好，也许可以自费。又没有什么民间投资？
为什么要拨款？

31                                                                            ，
The following appeared in the editorial section of a newsmagazine.

"Some states are creating new laws that restrict the use of of handheld cell phones by drivers of automobiles. Such legislation, however, is sheer folly. Although some people with cell phones undoubtedly cause problems on the road, including serious accidents,  the majority do not. Besides, problems are also caused by drivers who are distracted by any number of other activities, from listening to the radio to disciplining children. Since there is no need to pass legislation restricting these and other such activities, it follows that there is no need to restrict people's freedom to use a device that they find convenient—or helpful in emergencies."
1，the majority do not. problems are also caused by drivers who are distracted by any number of other activities,
作者没有给出可靠的证据证明这一论点。并且没有给出它引起交通事故的数量，严重程度与其他因素的比较。即使只有少部分人因此出事故，就可以不立法了吗？犯罪也是少数人干的事情，也可以不立法？？
2，Since there is no need to pass legislation restricting
  未被禁止的原因不明确，有些行为无法禁止：如教育小孩
3，restrict people's freedom to use a device that they find convenient—or helpful in emergencies."
  开车时用手机＝/紧急情况时用手机。
  并为说明立法中不准在紧急情况时用手机。

32                                                                            ，
Until recently, people in Hiparia did most of their shopping by driving to shopping malls. They are beginning, however, to do more of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order catalogs and the Internet. These purchases are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery service. For many purchases（购买）, Hiparians no longer need to drive to and from shopping malls; there will therefore be a resulting reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia.
1，beginning, however, to do more of their shopping by
增加的比例是多少？哪些人这样做？也许他们原来就不是开汽车去mall购买，这样的增加对结果根本没有影响。
人们对这种新的购物方式是否满意，是否油继续增长的趋势。
2，no longer need to drive to and from shopping malls
网上购物涵盖了所有商品吗？由此质疑mall存在的必要性。
论者没有了解现在人们是否有比以前少去商场购物
3，resulting reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia.
因为开车购物造成的燃油消耗又多大。其他消耗燃油的数量有无增长——比如说买车的人增多了。驾车出游，商用，物流，用于快递服务和邮寄的汽油消耗有可能会上升


33                                                                            ，
The following report appeared in an archaeology journal.

"The discovery of distinctively shaped ceramic pots at various prehistoric（史前） sites scattered（分散）over a wide area has led archaeologists to ask how the pots were spread. Some believe the pot makers migrated to the various sites and carried the pots along with them; others believe the pots were spread by trade and their makers remained in one place. Now, analysis of the bones of prehistoric human skeletons can settle the debate: high levels of a certain metallic element contained in various foods are strongly associated with people who migrated to a new place after childhood. Many of the bones found near the pots at a few sites showed high levels of the metallic element. Therefore, it must be that the pots were spread by migration, not trade."
1，导致瓷器分散的其他原因，除了migration & trade. 比如狩猎，比如远行，然后因为不可知的原因死在路途中。这些都可能使得这些坛子出现在各种地方
2, associated with people who migrated to a new place after childhood
   这种金属只存在于一个地方吗？也许其他很多地方都有。
3，the bones found near the pots at a few sites showed high levels of the metallic element
导致含铁量多的其他原因：饮食习惯，历史沉积。
只是这些遗址中有，其他情况未明。
4．        the pots were spread by migration, not trade.
没有证据证明Trade没有导致瓷器的分散。

34                                                                               ，

Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.

1，论据没有提供有关参与研究的人群的性别、年龄、职业等特征的分布，也没有提供坚持吃牛奶的人的资料以及骨折的原因
2，造成fractures的原因有很多，与他们的生活环境，从事的职业，以及一些特殊情况有关（如事故）
骨折就一定时骨质疏松的象征吗？没有给出医学根据。事故造成的也很多，甚至更多（凭我们的经验）
3，milk和dairy的效力有多久，有多大效力未明。该研究没有纵向比较，只有横向比较。
也许那些高骨折率的人以前更高，因为服用了milk而有所好转，尽管骨折率还是比其他人群高。
Too much VD might cause negative effects.the result of the survey is based only on those consistently consumed dairy products. the arguer did not mention those have dariy products now and then: are they in a decreased risk of osteoporosis ?

35                                                                            ，
The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.

"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."
1， Salicylates究竟能否治疗头痛，与aspirin 是否一样，疗效有多好，是否有副作用，添加在食物中是否影响其效力，是否会导致性质变化。
2，20年中有太多因素（生活环境，生活质量，其他食品）可以影响人么的头痛病，没有足够证据（对比行：吃了的人怎样，没吃的又怎样）证明是Salicylates的功劳。
3，成为新的食品添加济后是否依然又医治头痛的效果。即使有，人们是否会接受，会购买这样的additives。The new application of this medicine in food engineering has not undergone long term verification so whether or not it is safe is questionable。
4，持续下降的头痛现象不一定出现。但就算S真能影响头疼也还可能会有其他因素导致头疼上升，比如生活节奏加快、工作压力突然加大

36                                                                            ，
The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.

"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."
1，小孩更多说父母并不意味着他们由父母来抚养。仅能说明孩子与父母的接触更多，比如他们有着天然的血缘关系，比如父母比村里其他成年人更关心自己的孩子，但这都不能排除孩子的抚养是由全村人进行，比如食物喂养，技能传授等等，这并不能说明孩子不由全村人抚养。另外论者也没有告诉我们他们是否在采访中采取了措施以保证结果准确，比如采访话题是否会引导孩子谈论父母
2，即使现在情况是这样，也不能说人家的研究就是错的，毕竟是20年前了，一个地方的许多问题都会发生改变的。
3，观察中心方法是错误的？仅仅因为一个自己认为所谓的错误就认定一种方法的错误，是不合理的。
Dr. Field的研究结果有可能来自多方面的详细调查（如interview,历史资料,教育设备,教育状况等），而Dr. Karp仅靠interviews就推翻了Dr. Field的观点，显然是不充分的；


37                                                                            ，
Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river—the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea.

1，Lithos的篮子的确是来自Palean的可能：
   其他路径去Palean，除了水路。
   没有船存在的证据并不代表没有船存在。
   就算大载重的船未出现，Lithos 的人可能通过多次小规模运送来获得Palean 的篮子。
   但是首先论者没有提供关于史前时代这条河的状况，有可能这条大河在史前时代并不存在，或是很浅。
2，Lithos没有必要去Palean？？
   有食物是否够吃。
    去Palean有其他原因：游玩，访友，为了篮子。
3，就算Lithos的人真的没有去Palean，这么久了很难说其他人后后人没有把篮子带去Litho。

38                                                                            ，
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
1，鱼与感冒没有必然联系。没有医学证明吃鱼可以预防感冒。当地人可能本身身体强健（physical nature）能是其他其他食物的作用。可能当地气候很好，不易于患感冒。其次感冒的人不一定都会去医院，一年去医院接受两次感冒治疗并不意味着一年只得两次感冒，有很多人感冒就自己在家里休息或吃药the tradition of avoiding visiting doctor for cold
2，即使鱼可以预防感冒，Ichthaid不一定可以。鱼和鱼油是不同的，作者没有给出任何科学证明。因为从鱼到鱼油再Ichthaid是一个提炼过程，论者没有提供证据证明防止感冒的因素都留在了Ichthaid里。
3，本地情况是否和East Meria一样：气候，环境，人口本身的身体素质。
4导致学生absenteeism的原因有很多：生病（cold之外的），家事，本身是个逃课的人。因为cold请假的究竟占多少，其中有多少是情况属实的，而非借口。

39                                                                            ，

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.

"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures（支出） for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."
1，远程教育与硬件投资减少没有必然联系，在解决OU的财政问题上扮演的角色不明。
   减少硬件的投资可能因为该校的硬件本身已经很好，暂时无需更多的投资。或该校资金有限，只能将资金投资在最迫切的问题上。
   远程教育可能不但没有另该校减少总支出，反而增加了。比如电脑，网络设备需要优化，更新。
2，导致HC招生递减的原因不明（学费高昂，教学质量不好，），开设远程教学不一定可以增加入学。
3，财政赤字的原因不明。开设远程教育是否可以解决问题。可能适得其反。
结尾：尽管Omni University的long-distance degree programs是值得借鉴的，但依然要按各自的具体情况决定学校的发展策略，而不能一味地照搬。


40                                                                               ，
The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.

"In 90 towns（在90个镇都有） where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth（售货亭） requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."
1，虽然多了一个竞争者，但并没有描述竞争情况如何。可能根本不会因为对方售卖有机食物而导致我们利润下降。如果说他们惨淡经营，我们就更没必要涉足了。
2，顾客要尝试有机水果（注意：仅仅是水果，不包括其他食物），可能只是处于好奇心或免费，并不足以表明他们要买有机食物。没有说明有没有同时尝试其他食品。
即使想买，仅仅SUNcity的情况也不足以代表其他的90个town。
3，调查是在哪里进行的，论者没有描述这份调查是否科学，被调查者有哪些特征，是否具有代表性，调查的可性度没有被保障。
  即使可信，关注并不等于顾客会买，有许多其他决定原因：价格，口味，习惯、品牌
4，在所有市场引进有机食物不一定可以增加我们的利润：
引进过程中的投资和可能出项的损失：宣传，老顾客，滞销

[ 本帖最后由 huhu_zsu 于 2006-6-25 10:25 编辑 ]