ARGUMENT147 【越洋农场】第四周慢组

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT 147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 418          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-6-26

In this editorial, the author conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games will incerase dramatically in the nest few months. To support that assertion, the author list several reason that follows: first author provide a recent survey which reveal that lifelike graphics is the most important features in video game; then author claim that Whirlwind has introduced several such games with extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old who are most likely to play video game. However, those support are unpersuasive as it stands.

First of all, that survey did not convey anything. The author never give us any detail informations about that survey. Is that a choice-making survey or question-answer survey? We have no idea. If that survey is a choice-making survey, it is entirely possible that there is deficient choice for people to choose and thus that survey does not mean anything to us. Furthermore, the author failed to give out the state of people that survied. May be that people are only tennage or only one minor group of the video game players, author cannot so hasty to congnize that group of people can convey the requirements of all the video game players. According to the above that I listed, the author cannot use this survey to support his assertion that Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next months.

Secondly, author cannot easily draw the conclusion that 10 to 25 years old people will undoubtedly buy the games of Whirlwind. Author mistaken the relationship between introducion and buying behavious, indroduciong will not directed cause the buying bahavious. And furthermore, it is likely that people who is 10 to 25 years old have not got any interest in this kind of video games, let alone this kind of games require the most up-to-date computers. In this editorial, there is not any support that those young people can afford this expensive computer. Thus, author failed to persuade us that this point can convince us to draw the conclusion that mentioned at begining.

At last, author is so hasty to draw the conclusion that sales of Whirlwind video game will increase dramatically in the next few months. Even if this kind of games will attract many people, there are many other reasons stop them from buying that video games. It is possible that that kind of games are too expensive to buy and as stated before, many people may not have the ability to afford the most up-to-date computers. Furthermore, competitions from other video game campanies still existed. Without accounting for these possible factors, author cannot obtain that conclusion.

To sum up, author should provide more detial and clear supports to convince us. To draw that conclusion, author should list out the actual operation process of that survey, futrher give us sufficient evidence about the 10 to 25 years old people will buy the games of Whirlwind and can afford the most up-to-date computers as well.

没有按时写完,结尾是后来才补上去的