- 最后登录
- 2009-6-30
- 在线时间
- 6 小时
- 寄托币
- 2040
- 声望
- 1
- 注册时间
- 2005-2-3
- 阅读权限
- 30
- 帖子
- 13
- 精华
- 0
- 积分
- 1945
- UID
- 194641
 
- 声望
- 1
- 寄托币
- 2040
- 注册时间
- 2005-2-3
- 精华
- 0
- 帖子
- 13
|
TOPIC: ARGUMENT71 - Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.
驳斥思路:
(1)新的技术不一定比老的省电
(2)即使省电不一定被产业化
(3)即使产业化工业用电不一定会下降
WORDS: 530 TIME: 1:00:00 DATE: 2006-7-13
In this argument, the author concludes that the electricity employed by the copper-extraction industry will drop dramatically. To substantiate the conclusion, the author points out that the new technologies can reduce 40 percent electricity during the process when ore preserves high proportion of copper. Moreover, the author assumes that the new technology will reduce the using of electricity and thus, the industry is bound to use it and then the employment of electricity of the industry should decline significantly. This argument rests on a number of dubious assumptions and is therefore unpersuasive.
First of all, the author assumes without justification that the new technology will reduce the consuming of electricity when extracting copper in ore. The instance cited, while suggestive in trends, is inadequate to warrant its truth. For example, it is entirely possible that the new technology consumes much more electricity than it reduces when managing the low copper proportion ore, and since the proportion of copper in ore varies significantly, therefore, we have no reason to believe the electricity consuming will reduce. Even if the new technology performs excellence in ore, there is no reason to believe its effectiveness of extracting copper is better than the old one, possibly it yields less copper than the old one with the same amount of ore and electricity, so the industry still have to consume more power when extracting the same amout of copper. Therefore, the argument is untenable as it stands.
Even if the new technology surpass the old one in all perspective and the consuming of electricity will reduce after using the new technology, the argument still counts on the assumption that the industry will use the new one immediately. However, on evidence is stated in this argument to substantiate this assumption. Consideration of the revolution of the industry should be especially cautious and all-around, it should be determined on various of perspectives rather than just the electricity usage. It is entirely possible that the industry cannot draw back the money it would spent on the new equipment which it might employ. Moreover, herhaps the old one is much safer than the new one in using. Therefore, without strutinizing the other possible consideration of the industry and ruling out them, renders the argument based upon it highly suspicious.
Thirdly, even if the industry employs the new technology, the author still commits a fallacy of "hasty generalization" in presuming that it will automatically make for the coming down of electricity usage. The author does not provide any evidence to uphold this claim. It is possible that the industry expands day and night, we need more copper than ever at the following time, therefore, the industry have to use more and more power to yield copper. Without ruling out such possibilities, it is impossible to assess the conclusion based upon it.
In summary, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author should produce more concrete evidence to demonstrate that new technology will reduce the consuming of the electricity and the industry is going to apply it with only this consideration. To better evaluate it, we still need more information concerning the market capacity and the industry prospect.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
经word检查评错应该没了, 请大家狠狠得拍,拍好请留下连接~^_^ Merci~
[ 本帖最后由 undoerlc 于 2006-7-13 09:48 编辑 ] |
|