ARGUMENT71 同主题第二期

hanyuanUID: 2219299

71. Copper occurs in nature mixed with other minerals and valuable metals in ore, and the proportion of copper in the ore can vary considerably. Until fairly recently, the only way to extract pure copper from ore was by using a process that requires large amounts of electric energy, especially if the proportion of copper in the ore is low. New copper-extracting technologies can use up to 40 percent less electricity than the older method to process the same amount of raw ore, especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Therefore, we can expect the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly.

In this argument, the arguer predicts that the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly by using a new developed extracting method. To support the new technology is better, the arguer cites the advantage of the new technology can use up to 40 percent less electricity than old way to process the same amount of raw ore. The argument is problematic in many respects as it stands.

To begin with, the merely fact that the new technology can use up 40 percent less electricity than old way to process the same amount of raw ore is little convince that the new one can save electricity if we use it. The arguer provides no information about the factual proportion variance in the raw ore. Lacking such evidence we can not draw any conclusion about electricity saving since the arguer mentions about the new technology can save electricity especially when the proportion of copper in the ore is high. Suppose the situation that the proportion is low in most of ores now, the new technology would not exert its influence on electricity saving well and maybe is not as good as the old one. The arguer provides no information about the electricity consuming comparison to process the same amount of copper. It is entirely possible that as a result of proportion variance, the new technology’s advantage is not so evident. Without taking all these possible factors affecting the electricity saving into account, we can hardly conclude that new technology would save electricity as the arguer claims.

Secondly, the arguer unfairly assumes that the new technology will undoubtedly be adopted in a wide range. The author provides no evidence whether the new technology is mature or what’s the detailed cost of the usage. Perhaps the new technology is just in experimental stage and a lot of improvement should be made. Or perhaps the new technology needs additional facilities to ensure its function and thus increase the costs. Or perhaps it is not as good as the old method in low proportion ores extracting as mentioned above. Any scenario would serve to undermine the prediction that the new technology would be used widely, let alone the further that it would save electricity consuming.

To the sum, the arguer concludes too hastily and too optimistically base on the merely evidence that the new technology would make the amount of electricity used by the copper-extraction industry to decline significantly. To better support his claim, the arguer must provides detailed evidence that the new technology would save electricity to process the same amount copper, and it would be welcomed by the copper extractors.

魏玛竹林UID: 2201594

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