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117The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
1.调查的可靠性
2.即便调查是真实的,有没有必要增加以上的仪器
3.成为利润最高部门的可能性
Before we come to the profitable investment, there are quite a lot details should be taken into account and examined, and what the author asserts is unreliable due to some faults. From a trend ,according to a survey, that over 70 percent of the respondents are required to take more work home, the author suggests to increase the stock of home office machines and office supplies. Such an conclusion is not cogent, because there is an implicit consumption which the arguer supposes failed to indicate the causation which is actually not exist.
Insofar as a survey does, it is necessary to provide enough details such as how many the respondents are, who the respondents are, where they do this survey, and how they do this survey. All these should be considered, or it is possible that the sampler is not large enough to present the actual trend. And different representative people live in different area where the research would be characterized by the place. For instance, perhaps the survey was taken placed near factory, so most respondents are workers whose home work might be processing some thing without the need of home office machine. So, it is necessary, when doing survey, to state the background clearly, or the survey might be useless or not convincing enough.
Even if we concede that the trend is true, this does not necessarily mean that it is reasonable to increase the stock of home office machines. Why does the trend increase? It is quite possible of wide spread internet, so people can communicate at home through internet. However, the home office machines, such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines, are all useless in this internet world. It is much more convenient to write an E-mail than to write a letter then post it. In addition, another element must be taken into account. Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past. Why? Maybe the problem exists in the office machine quality. If they just increase the stock without improving the quality, the trend will just benefit other company.
Finally, it is quite blind to come to the conclusion that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component. The increasing stock is a large investment, and the profit may not be able to cover the costs. And we even don not kwon nothing about other departments, it is possible Valu-Mart’ main business is computer only assigning a small part on office machines and office supplies.
All in all, before coming to the conclusion, the backgrounds of the survey must be stated clearly in order to support causation. And even the trend actually exists, the increasing stock strategy will not effect if other details are failed to consider. |
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