argument45

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Argument 45
In this argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of the obstruction of their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To substantiate this notion, the author cites the evidence concerning the report of hunters and recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. However, this argument suffers from several critical problems.

First of all, the author simply assumes that the population of deer is declining based on the report of hunters. However, the arguer provides no evidence to prove the credibility and sufficiency of the hunter’s report. It is quite possible that, the hunters have only observed a small part of the whole deer habitat. And the decline reported by them may be only a regional phenomenon. Without more sufficient and reliable evidence, it is unfair for the author to draw a conclusion that there is a decline in deer population.

Granted that there is a decline in deer population, another problem with the argument is that the author is begging the question in assuming that there is a direct causal relationship between the global warming trend and the melting of the ice covering the sea separating the islands over which the deer travel. For it is quite possible that the temperature increment caused by the global warming trend is not so dramatic to result in vast area of sea ice. May be it is a slow a gradual process and would not lead to the disappearance of the ice covering the sea through which deer migrate every year. Also, even if the sea ice begins to melt dramatically because of the global warming trend, we can still not draw a conclusion that this would block the migrating route of the deer. For as the writer has presented in the argument, requisite and necessary condition for the migration of the deer is that at the very least, some of the year, the temperature is low enough for the ice to cover the sea, there is no guarantee that the melting of the sea ice will last during the whole year. It is fairly possible that, in some of the year, regardless of the warming up trend, the temperature will still be low enough for the sea water to ice. Therefore the global warming up trend would have little to do with the deer’s migration.

All in all, although this argument sounds at the first thought to have some merit, before the writer provides more direct evidence to show the causal relationship between the global warming up trend and the decline in deer population, I will suspend my judgment about the credibility of the conclusion.