argument53 大家帮忙看看

cpuliuwenUID: 2203373

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

In this argument, the arguer draws a conclusion that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into  later life. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the result of a study conducted thirteen years ago. In addition, the arguer also points out the result of a recent follow-up study. As it stands, the argument suffers from several critical flaws as follows.

To begin with, the research study conducted thirteen years ago lacks credibility. 25 is a relatively small number for a convincing research and thus the responses of these infants are not representative of all the infants who was conceived in early autumn. Moreover, the signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice may be a nature response when people meet with something strange, not the unique response of infants the arguer supposes.
Therefore, the arguer fails to establish a relationship between the signs of mild distress and the fact that these infant was conceived in early autumn.

Furthermore, there is no evidence shows that it is the melatonin that leads to the infants' distress. Although this is a reasonable possibility, there may be other changes in their mothers' body which was ignored by the researchers. And just these changes can also result in the distress of the infants. Without ruling out other factors that may contribute to the result we can no simply say the increase amount of melatonin in response to decreased daylight is the cause, or the only cause of the shyness.

Finally, even if we can accept the result of the research study and the inference about the function of the hormone--melatonin, the arguer again falsely assumes the increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness which can continues into later life just according to the follow-up study conducted earlier this year. Nevertheless, the arguer overlooks many other factors affecting the personality of these teenagers. It is entirely possible that their shyness is caused by the indifference of their parents when they grow up.
It is equally possible that they are not well supervised by their teachers when they are in school. Or, in all likelihood, they were rejected by their peers when they are young. All these possibilities can lead to the shyness of these teenagers. Besides, the teenagers who identified themselves as shy are not necessarily shy in fact. May be they are considered extroversive by others.

To sum up, the conclusion reached in the argument lacks credibility since the evidence cited in the analysis does no lend strong evidence to what the arguer claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should provide more specific evidence to confirm us the relationship between the shyness of the infants and the fact these infants are conceived in early autumn.