ARGU45 FOR PRACTISE GROUP

beibeiyu200307UID: 2223106

WORDS: 374          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-8-5

The argument draw an conclution that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their old migration patterns across the frozen sea.To concrete the assertion the arguer provides some facts and a report from local hunters.However, careful examination reveals those evidence lead little to support the conclution.

First of all, the reports from local hunters are problematic in themselves on many grouds. firstly, the reports from local hunters might be not representative  enough to substantiate whether the arctic deers's population really decreases recent, since it is entirely possible that respondents of the survey are the hunters who just fail to catch as many deers others or as they did before, or perhaps, the respondents comes from the same region where the deer groups just emigrate,thereby they were more likely to say the deers' s number has declined recently .

Secondly, the global warming trends donot necessarily cause the decrease of artic deers, since the global climate can not represent various regional climates.without certain evidence , the author cannot rule out the possiblity that in some places else, the weather became warmer than before and level of changes is greater than other places,whereas ,instead of being warmer the climate in arctic region might keep unchanged or even declined recently, which , of course, cannot caused the sea ice to melt and bring the death of deers.

Finally,without considering other alternative reasons,it is unfair to conclude that failing to follow traditional migration pattern is the reason of arctic deer population's decline. the author unreasonably assumes there is no other possibility rather than migration problem can cause the deer's death.Actually , it is entirely possible that the recent increased hunting of arctic deers or the disapperance of edible stuff for them caused the declined number of deers.without ruling out those alternatives , the author cannot justifably assume migration is the only reason for the phenomenon.

To sum up, the substance in this argument complete little to bolster the final conclusion. To solidify the point that arctic deer's decline is the result of failing to migrate as before, the author need to provide clear evidence about about the  immediate climate situation in arctic regions and the new changes in living condition for local deers.