Argument147 求拍

qhx17UID: 142079

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 477          TIME: 上午 12:45:00          DATE: 2006-10-28

In this argument, the author concludes that Whirlwind video games will increase in its sales in the next few months. To justify his assertion, he cites a survey of video-game players who suggest that the sales trends will be reversed to increase. And he also point out evidence that Whirlwind video games has introduced several extensive advertising games directed teenagers. However, close scrutiny of this evidence and of the author's line of reasoning reveals that they provide little credible support for the conclusion.

A threshold problem with this argument is that the author commits a fallacy of misapplied generalization in assuming that the reversed tendency applies specifically to Whirlwind's sales. There is no evidence supplied whatsoever to substantiate this assumption. Yet, the mere fact the sales of video game is about to be reversed hardly suffices to infer that the declined sales of Whirlwind is about to be reversed. It is entirely possible that the sale of video game in Whirlwind might not rise. For that matter, the sale of Whirlwind is deteriorated. Without consider other factors that might bring about the decline, such as the manage tactics, the service quality, it is unjustifiable to draw any conclusion.

Even assuming that video game sales increase, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the introducing popular game and the sales of Whirlwind. While the introducing game with an extensive advertising campaign directed  in 10-to-25-age-group who most likely to play video games is an important element in determining the sales improvement, it is hardly the only one. To establish a general causal relationship between games and sales, other factor that could be considered and eliminated. For example, people lose interest quickly in games which are dull and have no lines of scenarios. The author's failure to investigate or even consider the possible explanation for the raising sales renders the conclusion based upon it highly suspect.

Moreover, the author confuses the concept between the group interested in games and the group paid the games.  There is no evidence indicate that people who are most likely to play games are willing to pay that games. For that matter, there is insufficient evidence that 10 to 25 years old would afford the game. Meanwhile, the author overlook the possibility that parents would not allow their children play games nor spent money and time on that game. If that is the case, the author's conclusion would be seriously undermined.

To sum up, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To bolster it, the author must provide clearer evidence that the tendency is applied specially in Whirlwind. To better assess the argument, it would be useful to know that the extensive advertising games introduced is useful in sales raising. Also useful would be any information that 10 to 25 year-old-group can afford the games and they would be allowed to play them.