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(2006-12-27) Argument 38.The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council. "An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism." (我们注意到一种保证可以显著减少学校和工作岗位的缺席的革新疗法。一项研究报告说在附近的East Meria,鱼的消费量很高,那里的人们每年因为治感冒而去看医生的次数只有一或两次。显然,吃较大量的鱼可以预防感冒。由于感冒是学校和单位缺席的最常见原因,我们建议每天服用Ichthaid,一种从鱼油中提炼的营养物质,作为预防感冒和减少缺席率的有效措施。)
Syllabus:
1. 证据不能证明吃鱼就一定能预防感冒;地区差异,人们自己服药,医药费用等综合因素;
2. 即使能,也不能完全说明鱼油能跟鱼的效果一样,毕竟鱼油和鱼有区别,即使鱼油对预防感冒有效果,但Ichthaid是鱼油的提炼物,在提炼过程中是否破坏鱼油的精华或营养等,不得而知;
3. 感冒是旷课旷工最常见的原因, 降低患感冒率就能减少旷课旷工率, 站不足脚. 没有考虑其他旷课因素,如其他疾病, 如消化道疾病等; 或其他事情, 家事等情况. 故仅就患感冒率与旷课率挂钩不妥;有多少请假者是由于感冒原因?
4. 另外, Ichthaid是否有副作用,若对感冒有作用,但引起其他方面疾病或不适,仍然不能降低请假率.
Full text: (21:17—22:42, 504words)
In this argument, the arguer states that the absenteeism can be lower by an innovative drug Ichthaid which is derived from fish oil that can prevent people getting cold. In order to support this argument, the arguer provides several evidence, however, which is based on some illogical reasoning.
The most significant logical problem of this argument is there is no persuasive evidence can convince that fish can prevent getting cold. To begin with, the arguer cites(adduces) that in East Meria nearby, where people have high consumption of fish, and people living there visit doctors only once or twice per year for treating colds. As we all know, cold is a common disease and naturally the body will recover in about one or two weeks without any treatment. So it is quite possible for people in East Meria think there’s no need to visit doctors just for cold. They may stay at home and take some pills instead of going hospital. Secondly, the arguer fails to take other factors that can affect getting cold into account, for example, the weather may quite different in the two areas, fee of treatment in hospital could be higher and so forth. So the precondition of this argument is not convincing enough.
In addition, in the argument, it is referred Ichthaid can prevent getting cold. Conceding that fish mentioned above can really do good to prevent cold, there is no evidence support that fish oil has the same function with fish. Since fish oil is a part of fish, which may not the one which can reduce getting cold. Another, Ichthaid is derived from fish oil. In the refining process, nutrition can be destroyed or essence of fish oil may loss. So whether Ichthaid is really work with reducing cold is suspended.
There is another flaw in this argument which makes the arguer’s assertion weaken. It is common sense(marble) that cold is the most popular excuse for absenteeism. However, there is no any information mentioned the ratio of absent people of getting cold. Moreover, there are various other alternatives for absence of school and work. For example, stomach, emergency or family affairs. Whether preventing to get cold can effectively make absenteeism lower is call for questions. Without any information about the side-effect of Ichthaid, it is extremely possible for people who takes Ichthaid can really beyond of getting cold, but can be hypersensitive(susceptive) to other kind of diseases, which is also cannot low the rate of absence. So there is no absolute connection between Ichthaid and the absenteeism.
In summary, the arguer furnishes several evidence which are full of flaws and can not support this argument cohesively. In order to make his argument more persuasive, the arguer must offer more information about the function of fish and Ichthaid to make sure that they can truly prevent people from getting cold. Additionally, he should also take other possibilities of absence from school and work into account. Combining all factors that related to absenteeism can make a perfect and convincing assertion. |