Argument147 【米国有米】小组 第八次作业,很重视的一篇.超高频!

ernest81888UID: 2247639

Argument 147

Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
Conclusion: the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in next few months.
Syllabus:
Logical flaw 1: recent survey—survey 3要素，survey sample , survey pool, survey procedure. From the survey quoted in the argument, however, we can find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, and have a good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general attitude of video games’ player as a whole.
Logical flaw 2: even if the survey is representative,表明玩家喜欢的口味+W公司正好有该产品，且W的面向10~25人群推出广告，也不能表明该产品一定好卖，没有考虑其他一些可能影响旋风公司销售产品的原因， 1.10~25岁人群的购买能力 2. 其他竞争对手 3. 游戏玩家的口味变化等，都会影响W公司的销售。
Logical flaw 3: Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two year,但作者没有给出确切的原因，很有可能是因为管理层的问题，或产品本身的质量问题，或是经济萧条等。If……the sales performance will remain low. Comprehensive analysis is necessary to identify the actual cause(s) that the company’s lowered profitability in past two years.

In this argument, the arguer makes a prediction that Whirlwind Company’s sales performance is likely to be excellent in next few months. The prediction is based on the recent survey which shows the responses are in great favor of games with lifelike graphics and required most up-to-date computers. To support his claim, the arguer mentions Whirlwind has just introduced several such game. Moreover, he also provides some information about Whirlwind Company’s advertising campaign aimed at 10 to 25 years old people. At the first glance, the prediction appears to be somehow plausible, but further reflection reveals that it suffering at least 3 logical flaws.

In the first place, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization in assuming that the current survey is representative. However, this is not necessarily the case. Perhaps the responses to the survey are very few, or perhaps those answers are all locate in certain place, or perhaps the responses are either ages below 15 or more than 25 years old. From the survey quoted in the argument, however, we can find no sign of such procedures for random sampling, and have a good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general attitude of 15~25 video games’ players as a whole.

In the second place, even if the survey is unquestionable and could represent the whole attitude of video game player, the argument is still unconvincing in assuming Whirlwind company’s related product could contribute to a high profit for the company and reverse the past two years’ sales performance. Yet, the arguer fails to ignore other possible reason might result in the company’s sales achievement. First, besides Whirlwind, other company might participant in the sales competition. Second, Since 15~20 aged people maybe among in low-paying groups, I recommend to take the afford ability of those people into consideration. Third, as a matter of fact, there is nothing unchanged in the world, possibility also exits that people’s favorite of video game’s characteristic might convert in the near future, thus company’s product focused on lifelike graphic would loss its priority. Without the evidence to rule out the possibility, the prediction rendered by the arguer is highly groundless.

In the final analysis, it is highly doubtable for the speaker to predict the sales performance without knowing the root cause of their product’s decline in past two years. If the reason for this case was caused by poor management or it is because of its product essential quality issue, or it is also possible it was cased by a financial depression, then the sales performance will remain low. So, comprehensive investigation is necessary to identify the actual cause (s) that the company‘s lowered profitability in past two years.

In sum, the argument is not well supported. To bolster it the arguer must provides more information about the demographic of the survey’s respondents. Also in order to better strengthen his prediction, more evidence should be showed to reflect whether the new introduced product can make great profits for the company. At last, it will also be useful for the company to commit a complete investigation about the actually root cause of their sales decline of past two years.

[ 本帖最后由 ernest81888 于 2007-1-2 21:17 编辑 ]

ernest81888UID: 2247639

自己顶下啦~~~~希望酸酸乳来~:loveliness:

bluecathyUID: 2231215

你是特别和作业不一样 自己写147的？

ernest81888UID: 2247639

晕,不会吧,那多写一篇ARGU也挺好的,呵呵