【0706G-自由女神作文互改小组作业】第七次作业

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Six months ago the region of Forestville increased the speed limit for vehicles traveling on the region's highways by ten miles per hour.  Since that change took effect, the number of automobile accidents in that region has increased by 15 percent.  But the speed limit in Elmsford, a region neighboring Forestville, remained unchanged, and automobile accidents declined slightly during the same six-month period.  Therefore, if the citizens of Forestville want to reduce the number of automobile accidents on the region's highways, they should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was before the increase.

Time:1 hour     Words: 348

   The arguer wants to prove that the increasing speed limit leads to the increasing automobile accidents incidence and advise to resume it..But some flaws in reasoning makes the assertion unconvincing.

   Firstly,the arguer do not confirm the causal relationship of increasing speed limit and the increasing automobile accidents incidence just based on the fact that the increasement of accidents incidence happened after the increasement of speed limit.In fact,it is very possible that there are some other reasons that would also cause accident.During the six months mentioned in the article, the city may suffer the worse weather that brought a big trouble to the drivers and made the driving unsafe or the city road were undergoing through modification that made the road so rough that cause more accidents.If the arguer can not provide any substantiation that ensure the increasing speed limit leaded to the increasing automobile accidents,the adivision to reduce speed limit is useless.

   Secondly,it seems reasonable to resume the limit because of unchanged speed limit in Elmasford leading to unchanged accidents,but the arguer ignores the viriance between two cities that makes arguer’s assertion unpersuasive.The situation that happened in Elmsford may not happen in Forestville because of many reasons,the road situation,the drivers’ experience,the terrain and so on.Perhaps in Elmsford the road is smooth but in Forestville it is rough;perhaps the most drivers of Elmsford are elder and master more driving expierence but it is adverse in Forestvelle;perhaps there are more slopes in Forestville than in Elmsford that make the driving more difficulty.

   Even though assuming that the situation in two cities is similar and would not affect the accident incidence,the arguer’s suggestion to resume the speed limit still does not work.Because there are no reasons to substantiate that it is the unchanged speed limit contributes to the stable and lightly reduced accident incidence in Elmsford but not other factors,such as increasing number of cubs wandering on the streets,the improvement of the road,the new law that limit the number of cars driving on the road.

   Additionally,six months seems not a long enough time to estimate the effect of a new rule.