官方argument范文4【0706G-自由女神作文互改小组第七次作业】

monkeydluffyUID: 2277631

4------Topic: Forestville Speed Limit
Six months ago the region of Forestville increased the speed limit for vehicles traveling on the region's highways by ten

miles per hour.  Since that change took effect, the number of automobile accidents in that region has increased by 15

percent.  But the speed limit in Elmsford, a region neighboring Forestville, remained unchanged, and automobile accidents

declined slightly during the same six-month period.  Therefore, if the citizens of Forestville want to reduce the number of

automobile accidents on the region's highways, they should campaign to reduce Forestville's speed limit to what it was

before the increase.
题目分析
结论为：The Forestville's speed should be limited to what it was before the increase
论据和假设：1、since the region of forestville's speed limit has been increased the number of automobile accidents has

increasd by 15%
                    2、but in elmsford where the speed limit has been remaind unchanged the accidents declined slightly during

the same six-month period.
提纲：
1、车祸增加可能是因为很多其他因素引起的，不是简单的和速度有关。比如，新手的增加，道路的改造，气候等等。
2、六个月时间还是有很多偶然性，不能确切的反映车祸增加还是减少。
3、就算e地区的车祸数和车速有很大关系，要确定限制的车速也不能根据e地区来，因为两个地区有不同的情况。

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the Forestville's speed should be limited to what it was before the increase.

Compared to the stable speed limit in Elmsford, where the automobile accident decreased slightly, the Forestville's speed

limit seemingly leads to--in arguer's opinion--a higher car accident. This conclusion is somewhat logical but is not well-

reasoned.

Firstly, aside from the speed limit there are also many other factors lead to more automobile accidents. Both in Forestville

and Elmsford area, the lack of driving experience, the road condition and the weather are regarded as significant reasons.

Maybe in Elmsford there are more people master of driving which leads to less accident while in Forestville is on the

opposite. And concerning the road conditions, more flat and straight roads amounts to less danger, also the fine sunny

weather which is more suitable for driving is related with car accident. Thus, both the rise in Forestville and the decline in

Elmsford can not be simply attributed to the speed limit.

Secondly, the period of six month may contain a lot of coincidence which is not convinced enough. Take the weather as an

example. If there are a lot of rainy days in that period, the drivers especially for the new comers will take more risk in

crashing and hurting, let alone the road condition is awful either. It’s more reasonable to extract the conclusion from a

year's data.

Even if in Elmsford the stable frequency of accident is closely related to the speed limit, in Forestville the situation is not.

The car accident in Forestville is likely influenced more by other reasons, such as the experience the weather mentioned

above. To effectively reduce the traffic accidents the government in Forestville should take more consideration of local

condition more rather than reference of the other areas.

To sum up, the conclusion exhibited in this article is not persuasive enough. To make it more convincing, the arguer should

make a comprehensive investigation about the influence of the frequency of automobile accidents and then make a more

reasonable plan to solve this problem.

nujnujoahzUID: 2287893

题目分析
结论为：The Forestville's speed should be limited to what it was before the increase
论据和假设：1、since the region of forestville's speed limit has been increased the number of automobile accidents has

increasd by 15%
                    2、but in elmsford where the speed limit has been remaind unchanged the accidents declined slightly during

the same six-month period.
提纲：
1、车祸增加可能是因为很多其他因素引起的，不是简单的和速度有关。比如，新手的增加，道路的改造，气候等等。
2、六个月时间还是有很多偶然性，不能确切的反映车祸增加还是减少。
3、就算e地区的车祸数和车速有很大关系，要确定限制的车速也不能根据e地区来，因为两个地区有不同的情况。

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the Forestville's speed should be limited to what it was before the increase.

Compared to the stable speed limit in Elmsford, where the automobile accident decreased slightly, the Forestville's speed

limit seemingly leads to--in arguer's opinion--a higher car accident. This conclusion is somewhat logical but is not well-

reasoned.

Firstly, aside from the speed limit there are also many other factors lead to more automobile accidents. Both in Forestville

and Elmsford area, the lack of driving experience, the road condition and the weather are regarded as significant reasons.

Maybe in Elmsford there are more people master of driving which leads to less accident while in Forestville is on the

opposite. And concerning the road conditions, more flat and straight roads amounts to less danger, also the fine sunny

weather which is more suitable for driving is related with car accident. Thus, both the rise in Forestville and the decline in

Elmsford can not be simply attributed to the speed limit.

Secondly, the period of six month may contain a lot of coincidence which is not convinced enough. Take the weather as an

example. If there are a lot of rainy days in that period, the drivers especially for the new comers will take more risk in

crashing and hurting, let alone the road condition is awful either. It’s more reasonable to extract the conclusion from a

year's data.

Even if in Elmsford the stable frequency of accident is closely related to the speed limit, in Forestville the situation is not.

The car accident in Forestville is likely influenced more by other reasons, such as the experience the weather mentioned

above. To effectively reduce the traffic accidents the government in Forestville should take more consideration of local

condition more rather than reference of the other areas.

To sum up, the conclusion exhibited in this article is not persuasive enough. To make it more convincing, the arguer should

make a comprehensive investigation about the influence of the frequency of automobile accidents and then make a more

reasonable plan to solve this problem.