Argument1-5提纲 【Chasing For "6" Score】第二次作业

leiniaUID: 156136

1.       The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

In this memorandum, the vice president of Nature’s Way recommends that…To justify it, the author cites the fact that…The vice president also points out that…The recommendation seems reasonable at first glance. However, close scrutiny of the evidences reveals that it lends little support for the recommendation.

The main problem the recommendation suffers is that it relies on the unwarranted assumption that the high sales of running shoes and exercise clothing certainly leads to the fact that the residents in Plainsville(P) are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. However, no sufficient evidence is offered to substantiate this assumption. It is entirely possible

Even assuming that the residents in P do care about living in a healthy away, nevertheless, the vice president assumes too hastily that they will certainly like the health food and other products sold by Nature’s Way. Perhaps.. It also perhaps…Without considering and ruling out such possibilities, the recommendation based on it cannot be accepted.

Moreover, the author provides no evidence that the schoolchildren who attend the fitness program can the customers of the store.

In sum, as it stands, the argument is wholly unpersuasive. To bolster it, it is necessary for the vice president to start a survey to ensure the residents in P are really willing to live a healthy life. The author must also provide clear evidence that they are interested in the products sold by Nature’s Way. I would also need to know whether the schoolchildren there can be the potential customers of the store.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

2. The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."

In this letter, the committee of homeowners recommends that…To strengthen it, the author cites the evidence that…Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the author’s recommendation.

First of all, the recommendation based on a known correlation between the adoption of restrictions on landscape of the yards and colors of homes’ exteriors and increase of average property values in Brookville (B). Yet the correlation alone amounts scant evidence of the claimed cause-and-effect relationship. Perhaps….If this is the case, then the recommendation based on it would lack any merit whatsoever.

Even assuming that the increase of average property values in Brookville was attributable to the restriction of the yards and homes’ exteriors, there is no sufficient evidence that the situation will be essentially the same in Deerhaven Acres (DA). It is entirely possible that…
Unless the author can show that the same thing will happen in DA, the recommendation relies on what might be a false analogy and cannot be accepted.

Even if the situation in DA is exactly the same as that in B, the author unfairly infers from the increase caused by the restriction happened in the past that the property values will increase by the same adaptation today. However, absent evidence to support this inference, it is just as likely that…Any of these scenarios, if true, would serve to undermine the recommendation.

In the final analysis, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing. To better evaluate the argument, the author should….
-----------------------------------------------------------

3. The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.

"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."

(1)    去大公司的法学院毕业生减少不代表他们不愿意去那里，很可能人数减少，或者大公司不录取他们
(2)    去小公司的毕业生人数增加不代表法学院毕业生去小公司的人数也增加
(3)    并且对一年级学生的问卷调查不能很好的反应毕业生的就业意向，毕竟新生的思想还比较单纯，很可能在以后的学习过程中改变
(4)    即使法学院毕业生不愿去大公司就业，但作者给出的建议是不明智，这个建议着重的工资提高以及工时减少，但没有证据表明他们会因为这个原因而选择公司。

----------------------------------------------------------------

4．The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

(1)    agents多不代表就是服务的好，可能A的agents每周只工作三天，而F的agents要工作7天
(2)    并且A卖掉房子价值比F的高，但这不代表A一定比F好，很可能A卖掉的较多的是闹市地段的房子，而F的则是偏远地段的，并且A的房子的面积可能比F的大
(3)    作者卖出的两套房子不具有可比性，不仅房子的大小、地段、状况可能不同，而且年代不同，这对房子的出售情况都会造成一定影响，因此，不能说A一定比F好
-----------------------------------------------------------------

5．The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."

(1) 这个调查是今后20年内的，不能很好的反应今后十年内的关节炎发病率，很可能十年内的关节炎发病率反而减少，这样这类药物的制药公司可能只有很少的利润
(2) 即使关节炎的发病率有所提高，但这个调查的样本数太小，而且不具代表性，不能很好的反映Xylan和Xenon的真实药效

(3) 即使Xylan确实比Xenon药效好，也不代表Xylan的利益一定比Xenon的好，很可能Xylan的成本高，或者有其他副作用
(4) 即使Xylan确实比Xenon要赚钱，但不能说明Perkins一定是今后10年内最赚钱的制药公司，很可能Becton或者其他公司研制新药在此期间研制出新药，如果不排除这个可能性，那么Perkins公司不一定是最赚钱的制药公司