Argument1-5提纲 【Chasing For "6" Score】第二次作业

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1.       The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

论断：在Plainsville开店会赚钱。
1．三条论据都没能有效的论证。运动鞋和运动衣都处于销售的最高点，俱乐部满员，都可能是因为此时是销售旺季，或者改善了管理经营模式,商店采取促销手段等等；在校学生被要求参加项目，自愿与否不知，就更不能说明P地的人们关心健康食品。
2．就算P地的人很关系饮食健康，当没有对P地现有的情况进行分析，比如当地是否已经有这方面的商店，经营状况如何。
3.就算适合开店，当地的经济水平不知，不一定会赚钱

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2. The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."

论断：规定景观和房屋涂色就能提高地价
1.Brookville社区景观和房屋涂色与地产升值并不一定有关系，可能是其他原因影响，经济发展，人民生活水平提高。
2.就算是七年前B地因为统一规定而升值，七年后的D地不一定升值，需提供可比性的论据
3.就算两地可比，未必适用于当今的D地，应进行调查研究再做判断。

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3. The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.

"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."

论断：大型合伙事务所应该给毕业生提供更多的福利和激励，并减少他们的工作时间，才能吸引毕业生来工作
1.去大公司的法学院毕业生减少不代表他们不愿意去那里，很可能大公司近年来招聘的人数降低造成的，而小型的需求量增加。
2.一年级学生的调查不具有代表性，一年级的兴趣和对未来的计划会在毕业是发生变化的。
3.即使毕业生不愿去大公司就业，大型合伙事务所应该给毕业生提供更多的福利和激励，并减少他们的工作时间也未必能吸引更多的毕业生

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4．The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

(1)    agents多不代表就是服务的好，可能A的agents每周只工作三天，而F的agents要工作7天
1.作者卖出的两套房子不具有可比性，房子状况可能不同，而且年代不同，不能说A一定比F好.
2.A的年收入多，但是它的员工多，平均下来可能效率很低。 agents多也不代表就是服务的好.
3.找好的代理公司不一定能保证卖房快，房价高。
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5．The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."

(1) 只提供了今后20年内的关节炎发病人数的预计，而不是推断公司利润的今后十年.
(2) 即使今后十年关节炎的发病人数有所提高,也不能说明倾向于Xylan的药的人会不购买Xenon药
(3) 即使Xylan确实比Xenon药效好，人们买Xylan的多,也不代表P的利润大，很可能Xylan的成本高
(4) 即使Xylan确实比Xenon要赚钱，也不能说明P一定是今后十年内最赚钱公司，很可能Becton或者其他公司研制新药在此期间研制出新药.