Argument147 *自由女神小组*第十三次作业

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Argument147
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
虽然Whirlwind游戏公司的销售业绩在过去两年均录得下降，一个最近对于游戏玩家的调查显示，这个趋势将会逆转。这个调查询问游戏玩家们他们最看重游戏中的哪个方面，玩家们表示，他们更喜欢提供了更真实的图像的游戏，而这样的游戏，需要使用最先进的电脑。而Whirlwind公司最近刚发行了几个这样类型的游戏，并且有着面对10到25岁这样最多人玩游戏的人群的强大的广告攻势。在这之后的几个月，Whirlwind公司的游戏的销售应该会相当大程度的增加。
Outline:
1.    调查本身就有问题。调查对象，调查范围，调查方法
2．基于调查准确的基础上，W生产的几种类型的游戏，这些游戏需要使用先进的电脑，也许正好说明W两年销售下降的原因是价格太贵，大多树玩家消费不起。
3．作者似乎认为W销售量下降是因为W的游戏产品类型不合玩家的口味，但也许是因为管理不善，价格太高所导致。
4．W有着强大的广告攻势，也许正好说明W的广告不能再吸引玩家了才导致玩家不倾向W的产品。
5．W的销售将在下个月剧烈增加，但也许其他的游戏厂家也生产了此类产品，并且价格也比W低，这样W仍然不能获利。  
The editorial claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically in the next few months because a recent survey cited can assure this point. But whether the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase is very specious on several grounds.

First, the survey which the editorial provides is unconvincing. we do not know who accept this survey, are they all the video games' enthusiasts ranging from 10 to 25?  Maybe these players account for a little percentage. Therefore, the author cannot predict the result of the whirlwind's new games. In addition, where do they investigate? Unless the survey include the whole country or the respondents are from some places which can stand for all video game players, the author cannot rely on the survey. And from the above argument, we know the survey depends on asking video game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. Perhaps this need only reflects their temporary need and players easily changed their thoughts. The last point is that maybe the percentage of respondents  was so low that cannot ensure they are the typical enthusiasts of video-game.

Second, assuming that the survey is statistical reliable, based on the survey, we understand that player prefer games that provide lifelike graphics and this require the latest computers. The author asserts that Whilwind has just introduced some such games, that is the problem why the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined in the past two years. Perhaps the price about these kinds of video games was too high, so these players could not afford them.

Third, the author ensures that the Whirlwind's sales trend is about to be reversed because the Whirlwind has recently introduced several games which just players prefer. This seems imply that the declining sales of Whirlwind video games over the past two years attributes to the kinds of Whirlwind's video games which were not players' favor. Perhaps the high price, poor management or some other factors induce the decline of sales.  

Fourth, the Whirlwind has an extensive advertising campaign directed at typical video-game players, perhaps the Whirlwind have been advertising that it cannot attract this group of players any longer. That is to say, this advertisement cost not only burdens the Whirlwind but also lifts the price of video games. In fact, there must be some other companies which  have also introduced the same video games or even better ones. Once these companies’video games have lower price, the sales of Whirlwind’s new games will still decline.

In sum, the argument is unconvincing not only because the survey cannot be statistically reliable but also some details the author speaks are specious. To strengthen the argument that the author should make a further examination according to some shortages of evidence.