Argument38 【Persistence 小组】第十八次作业

小驴子UID: 2222683

38.The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

The newsletter concludes that in order to prevent colds and lower absenteeism people in West Meria should eat lchthaid which is a derived from fish oil each day. The author cites a study reports in nearby East Meria which shows that people there consume fish a lot and visit the doctor only a little for treatment of colds, which could prove that eating a lot of fish can prevent colds. Close Scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the recommendation.

First of all, the newsletter cites the report to prove eating fish could prevent colds, however, no clear evidence could prove this. The fact that people in East Meria eat fish a lot doesn't have direct relationship with the fact that fish could prevent cold. The author wrote that people there visited the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds, the reason of which might not be eating fish. It is entirely possible that even if they get cold, they would like to stay in home rather than going to the hospital. Maybe the climate in East Meria is so good that people here might not be easy to get cold or maybe people here have a healthy body and their immunity could help them prevent cold.

Even if eating fish could prevent cold, no statistics could prove that lchthaid could also prevent cold. From fish to lchthaid, two steps must be considered. In these steps, the material which could prevent cold might be cleared and the final production lchthaid might not contain this kind of material, which means it has no use to prevent cold.  What's more, even if lchthaid has the ability to prevent cold, whether people can take it for a long time? It might have several other side effects that might make people obtain other kinds of more serious disease.

Finally, whether the recommendation could lower absenteeism is not known. The argument indicates that preventing cold could lower absenteeism. However, no evidence could prove this is the case. Firstly, people in West Meria might only use cold as an excuse to leave from work. The true fact is that they are lazy and do not want to go to job, and at the same time, calling for cold is the reason that would make them run from work easily. If so, they could also make some other excuse to call for absenteeism. Secondly, whether people are willing to take lchthaid is questionable. They might not trust the nutritional supplement and refuse to take it. If it is the case, it is still not easy to lower absenteeism.

In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation, the author must provide the statistics which could prove lchthaid is effect to prevent cold and its side effects. To better assess the recommendation, I would need to know the true reason of absenteeism in West Meria.
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