ARGUMENT47 【小鸡快跑】大家有空就拍

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

WORDS: 484         TIME: 上午 12:09:46          DATE: 2007-2-27



The arguer asserts that the suddenly cooling weather patterns in historical records may be caused by a volcanic eruption. In this argument, the author places some reason to illustrate his conclusion: firstly, only a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite collision could have created so large dust cloud to block sunlight to lower global temperatures; Secondly, a loud boom recorded in Asian history justify that the reason which cool the earth significantly is volcanic eruption. However, the arguer makes some mistakes including misunderstand of causal relationship and false assumption in the argument.



To begin with, the author’s recommendation depends on the assumption that no factors other than volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could caused so much cloud that could impede the radiation of sunlight to lower global temperatures. However, common sense reflects that this assumption is an inappropriate one. A myriad of other factors, including the effect of sun and other planets might just as likely be the cause of declination of global temperatures. Without ruling out these and other possible causes, the author cannot justifiably conclude that the cooling of Earth was caused by a volcanic eruption or meteorite collision.



The author’s recommendation rests on the dubious assumption that no extant historical records of a flash can justify that excluded the possibility of a large meteorite collision. Perhaps the acient reports of the flash caused by the meteorite collision are destroyed by exchanging of regality. It is perhaps that the records deed existed but have not found by the archeologists. In short, since the author has not ruled out all other possibilities that might serve to justify the real reason of the sudden cooling in the mid-sixth century, the author’s recommendation is not very convincing.



The author asserts that a loud boom mentioned in existing Asian historical records of the time could prove a volcanic eruption considered the reason of the cooling, and thus underestimates the possibility that other nature phenomenon for example, land sliding, thunderbolt and avalanche, can be take to the loud boom in the records. Yet the author fails to provide historic evidence that other nature events of the boom are not possible. Lacking such evidence the author cannot reasonably conclude that the records of a loud boom can attest that a volcanic eruption is the reason of the cooling in the history.



In conclusion, the argument unfairly asserts that causation of the volcanic eruption and the cooling. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide clear evidece that the eruption causes the cooling by ruling out other possibilities. The author must also provide accurate evidence that the loud boom is cause by a volcanic eruption. To better evaluate the reliability of the Asian records upon which the author's conclusio depends, I would need more information about the records of sudden bright flash of light, which may easy be considered as a lightning on woods.