argument 147 {chasing 6 score 小组}第6次作业 ---

meishenUID: 189284

我的第一次完整ARGUMENT，请大家拍砖！谢谢！一定回拍！
TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."



In this argument, the arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer cites a survey regarding the most crucial factor in a video game. In addition, the arguer points out the features of new products of Whirlwind. This argument encounters several crucial fallacies, which render it unconvincing as it stands.

Firstly, the survey that the arguer cites lacks credibility and therefore does not lend strong support to the arguer's conclusion. We find no sign of such procedure of randomly sampling, and have good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general preference of all video-game players as a whole. Maybe the majority of players who participate in the survey are high school students. Moreover, lacking more specific information about the number of players take in the survey makes the survey unpersuasive.

Secondly, even if the survey is representative enough, only asking players about what features they thought were the most crucial in a video-game, the survey still provides no information on which type of video-game is the favorite of consumers at present. Perhaps video-game players prefer games that provide vivid graphics, but when it comes to purchasing, they care about other features. Thus, giving player the lifelike graphics does not necessarily indicate that the video game will sale well. To increase the sales of their products, Whirlwind should cater the consumers' genuine preferences.

Finally, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the increasing of sales and a change of products and advertising campaign. There are many others factors that influence the sales of video-games equally, including the competition of other companies, the price policy, and the general economic condition of society. Perhaps many video game companies release their new video games at the same time. And that will definitely decrease the proportion of market occupation of Whirlwind. Perhaps the badge of players that is spent on video game decreases for the bad economic condition of the society. There is another possibility, the price of the new game is too high for players, and these will not bolster the arguer's conclusion.  Without ruling out other possibilities, the arguer can not convince us on the basis of them that the sales of the video-games will increase.

To sum up, this argument is unwarranted as it stands. To solidify the argument the arguer would have to make a more convincing survey about the preferences of buying video games.  I will suspend my judgment about the credibility of the conclusion until the arguer provides concrete evidence that there is no other possibilities that will weaken this argument.

[ 本帖最后由 meishen 于 2007-3-2 22:10 编辑 ]

chongxinlaiUID: 2235209

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase. To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer cites a survey regarding不知道用在这里好不好，请指教 the most crucial factor in a video game. In addition, the arguer points out the features of new products of Whirlwind. This argument encounters several crucial fallacies, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
Firstly, the survey that the arguer cites lacks credibility and therefore does not lend strong support to the arguer' conclusion什么conclusion呢. We find no sign of such procedure of randomly sampling, and have good reason to doubt if the sample is representative enough to reflect the general preference of all video-game players as a whole. Maybe the majority of players who participate in the survey are high school students他们为什么木有代表性呢？. Moreover, lacking more specific information about the number of players take in the survey makes the survey unpersuasive.整段应该是准备过的模版吧，不过建议在使用的时候针对题目有重点的展开一部分

Secondly, even if the survey is representative enough, only asking players about what features they thought were the most crucial in a video-game, the survey still provides no information on which type of video-game is the favoriteof consumers at present. Perhaps video-game players prefer games that provide vivid graphics, but when it comes to purchasing, they care about other features展开亚比如ｍｕｓｉｃ，ｃｏｎｔｒｏｌ Thus, giving player the lifelike graphics does not necessarily indicate that the video game will sale well. To increase the sales of their products, Whirlwind should cater the consumers' genuine 对应上面的ｆａｖｏｒｉｔｅ，这里用个表示比较或最高级比较好preferences.
Finally, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the increasing of sales and a change of products and advertising campaign. 刚刚想到的，不如攻击广告的作用适得其反，ｄｅｃｒｅａｓｅ　ｔｈｅ　ｓａｌｅｓ，ｎｅｇａｔｉｖｅ　ｅｆｆｅｃｔｉｏｎThere are many others factors that influence the sales of video-games equally, including the competition of other companies, the price policy, and the general economic condition of society. Perhaps many video game companies release their new video games at the same time. And that will definitely decrease the proportion of market occupation of Whirlwind. Perhaps the badge of players that is spent on video game decreases for the bad economic condition of the society. There is another possibility, the price of the new game is too high for players, and these will not bolster the arguer's conclusion. 个人以为他因不需要举得太多，伤其十指不如断其一指，考官应该已经知道你想到其他原因的，想的完全也是不可能的，但应该把想到地说清楚，说具体 Without ruling out other possibilities, the arguer can not convince us on the basis of them that the sales of the video-games will increase.
To sum up, this argument is unwarranted as it stands. To solidify the argument the arguer would have to make a more convincing survey about the preferences of buying video games I will suspend my judgment about the credibility of the conclusion until the arguer provides concrete evidence that there is no other possibilities that will weaken this argument倒装吧