Argument45【07-10G Superstar大帖】第七次作业 by Huaxinluobo

huaxinluoboUID: 2326780

In this argument , the article concludes that recent global warming caused the decline of the Arctic deer populations. To support it the article cites reports from local hunters and the fact that recent global warming trends have cause the sea ice to melt . However, after scrutiny I find it suffers from a few flaws.

Firstly , the writer convince that the deer population is declining but only reports from local hunter can not fully prove it for no detail information about the hunters such as time , frequency, location and range of hunting , number , age of hunters and their style of hunting, it is also unknown that whether the hunters who report the decline is representative of all hunters . Perhaps only a few hunters think the deer population is declining and report while most hunters have contrary opinion and do not report, in which case the report can not justify the decline . Even if the survey is valid , it does not necessarily lead to the conclusion . Maybe the frequency of recent hunting decreases  , the range is limited or changed , the weather is worse than before , all these facts can result in that hunters see less deer and get the conclude that the deer population is declining but in fact the population may remains or even increases . Thus, without more evidence the writer can not convince that the population is declining.  

Secondly , the article assume that global warming cause the starvation of deer by interrupting their migration patterns . Although global warming causes sea ice to melt , no evidence shows that sea ice where deer live melts . So it is possible that sea ice by which deer migrate does not melt and their patterns are not interrupted , in which case the conclusion is not valid. Even if the sea ice melts , it is still unconvincing that deer face starvation. In most cases higher temperature can accelerate the growth of plants , so it is possible that plants in single island grows faster than before and are enough to feed all deer . If it is the case , then the decline of population have little to do with global warming and then the conclusion is diminished.

Finally , even the two assumption are valid and factual , it is more or less hasty to get the conclusion that decline of population is merely caused being unable to follow migration patterns because other possible reason are ignored. Perhaps higher temperature directly cause some ill amount deer or lower birth rate , perhaps some infectious disease break out , perhaps the hunters kill more deer currently . Without ruling out these possibility , the conclusion is unconvincing.

In sum , the article can not convince me with the given evidence. To better support the conclusion , the writer need to prove that decline of population is result of lack of food and it is global warming that lead to the interruption of migration .  



[ 本帖最后由 huaxinluobo 于 2007-6-16 22:44 编辑 ]

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laura001UID: 2295927

In this argument , the article concludes that recent global warming caused the decline of the Arctic deer populations. To support it the article cites reports from local hunters and the fact that recent global warming trends have cause the sea ice to melt . However, after scrutiny I find it suffers from a few flaws.


Firstly , the writer convince that the deer population is declining but only reports from local hunter(+s,猎人不可能就一个吧) can not fully prove it for no detail information about the hunters such as time , frequency, location and range of hunting , number , age of hunters and their style of hunting,(这些和数鹿多少关系不大) it is also unknown that whether the hunters who report the decline is representative of all hunters . Perhaps only a few hunters think the deer population is declining and report while most hunters have contrary opinion and do not report, in which case the report can not justify the decline . Even if the survey is valid , it does not necessarily lead to the conclusion . Maybe the frequency of recent hunting decreases  , the range is limited or changed , the weather is worse than before , all these facts can result in that hunters see less deer and get the conclude that the deer population is declining but in fact the population may remains or even increases . Thus, without more evidence the writer can not convince that the population is declining.  (这段前半部分有套模板的嫌疑,那个SURVEY的摸板放这题不合适)


Secondly , the article assume that global warming cause(+S) the starvation of deer by interrupting their migration patterns . Although global warming causes sea ice to melt , no evidence shows that sea ice where deer live melts . So it is possible that sea ice by which deer migrate does not melt and their patterns are not interrupted , in which case the conclusion is not valid. Even if the sea ice melts , it is still unconvincing that deer face starvation. In most cases higher temperature can accelerate the growth of plants , so it is possible that plants in single island grows faster than before and are enough to feed all deer . If it is the case , then the decline of population have little to do with global warming and then the conclusion is diminished. (什么是结论减少了???)

Finally , even the two assumption (+S)are valid and factual , it is more or less hasty to get the conclusion that decline of population is merely caused being unable to follow migration patterns because other possible reason are ignored. Perhaps higher temperature directly cause some ill (名词形式) amount deer or lower birth rate , perhaps some infectious disease break out , perhaps(2个PERHAPS相隔太接近了,换词) the hunters kill more deer currently . Without ruling out these possibility , the conclusion is unconvincing.

In sum , the article can not convince me with the given evidence. To better support the conclusion , the writer need to prove that decline of population is result of lack of food and it is global warming that lead to the interruption of migration(应该证明是global warming leads to decline of deer)

总结: 就那SURVEY那段(第1段前半部分),感觉有点无理取闹.其他还可以.

现在觉得大家A摸板都很重.想考高分,最好能跳出摸板形式.

[ 本帖最后由 laura001 于 2007-6-18 01:50 编辑 ]