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argument 57 The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health. "Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well." 1可能是医生的其他建议导致更少的溃疡复发率。 2不同的病人可能有不同的病因,不应该建议所有人都采取这个措施。 3专家对公众的的建议不一定会对所有病人都有利。 The writer of the newsletter claims that the multimineral Zorba pill helps prevent ulcers according to a study of the first-time ulcer patients who took it, so the experts should suggest general public of the fact. It seemed convincing at the first glance, however further scrutinizing it I found it suffered several logical flaws. The first problem involves the ulcer patients who took Zorba under the doctor’s direction is the direct reason that lead to less rate of new ulcers developing. It is common that doctors provide the some different advices that would benefit the recovering, so it is hasty to say only one of them is responsible for the good changes without ruling out other possible situations. Maybe the doctors always suggest that people who should take multimineral Zorba also need other pills as supplement which is the actual reason result in the development. The second problem has something with the preventing of many first-times ulcers. According to the pathology theory many reasons may bring the same disease, just like the ulcers, and it is always the patient who lack mineral that got the suggestion from the doctors that they should take Zorba pills. The particular to the less rate mentioned above is because of less serious of this group patient. So if the experts inform the general public of this fact, it maybe not only has little effect on some one, but also sometimes delays the disease curing who need other different medicines. If we could not prove that this method is needed for every ulcer, it is not wise to further the usage of the Zorba pills. The final problem involves that even if it is the Zorba pills that is the main reason that lead to less ulcer developed rate, it is not necessary we draw the conclusion that health experts suggest the general public of this fact would have a lot of benefits. Firstly, the kind pills may have some side effects that lead to serious problems aside from the effects on ulcers which is the reason the doctor only suggest some of patient of taking it. Secondly public advices often are taken less serious compared with private ones that could lessen the quantity of the ones who follows the advices. All above would make the newsletter less convincing as it stands. To sum up, the arguer is too hasty to conclude that the experts should provide pubic of the necessary of taking the Zorba pills that only based on evidences that suffered several logical flaws. |