argument209

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ARGUMENT209 - The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.

"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."

Merely based on a false causality between the leadership of president PatSalvo (PS) of the Fancy Toy Company (FTC) and the decline of profits, the Human Resources Manager recommends that they replace their current president with Rosa Winnings (RW), the president of Starlight Jewelry (SJ), a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Close scrutiny of his or her inference reveals that it suffers from many fallacies and thus is unconvincing.

To begin with, the causal relationship that the arguer establishes between the leadership of PS and the decline of the profits in FTC is unwarranted. I concede that the leadership of company is of significant importance as to whether the company will make a profit or not. However, besides leadership, there is a myriad of possibilities that could also affect the economical conditions of a company, such as the potential markets, other counterpart companies, the performance of workers, etc. Perhaps workers in FTC are badly paid compared with other companies and thus the quality their performance in FTC has been seriously declined over the past several years. Consequently, in order to save FTC from the economical crisis, they should elevate their worker's salaries and working conditions rather than replace PS with a new president. Simply put, without enough analysis of the main reason for the profit decline, the arguer cannot hastily make such a recommendation.

Secondly, even if PS were indeed responsible for the decline of the profits in FTC, the recruitment of RW as their new president might not bring more profits to FTC for the following respects. Firstly, although the profits of SJ have increased dramatically over the past several years, it is entirely possible that this increase was not due to RW but other factors, like these respects mentioned above. If that were the case, then FTC should follow the marketing strategy of SJ rather than simply hire their president. Secondly, even though RW was responsible for the profit increase in SJ, he or she might not reverse the economical situation of FTC due to possible differences between these two companies. In that case, RW might not be the best choice for FTC and perhaps FTC would better hire a president in the similar industry.

Moreover, though FTC are willing to pay RS twice the salary that PS has been receiving, no evidence shows that RS would be likely to accept such a position. Perhaps RS's salary in SJ is three times more than that of PS or perhaps RS cares little about money and what he or she prefers is the harmonious relationship in SJ. If that were the case, then RS might be unlikely to leave SJ for FTC. Besides, even if RS does accept the president position in FTC, there is a possibility that the total profits in FTC might be declined as well. Since profits are a function of revenues and costs and thus the profits he or she brings to FTC might undercut the additional salary that FTC offers to RS. As a result, without specific statistics regarding the profits and salaries of RS, the arguer cannot convince us that FTC would make a considerable profit in the near future.

In a word, the arguer's inference lacks of credibility as it stands in that he or she has overlooked or chosen to ignore many aspects of his or her conclusion. To further substantiate it, more evidence should be provided to justify that the leadership of PS was indeed responsible for the decline of the profits in FTC. Besides, the arguer should also convince that FTC and SJ actually share enough similarities and RW would also make a significant profit for FTC.

(2007-7-4 20:39:44)