Argument65 【天道酬勤作文互改小组】有拍必回^_^

surreal_stevenUID: 2239190

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 405

This seemingly reasonable argument draws the conclusion that the best way to improve profits is to stock domestic cheeses instead of the imported ones in all of the chain stores. However, a careful analysis discloses that it is flawed in several aspects.

To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that the situation of the newest store remains the same to the other stores throughout the country. Obviously, his/her generalization is too hasty to be convincing. It is quite possible that the newest store just opens at Wisconsin and the customers there are crazy about the chedder cheeses because it is local. While when it comes to the store in New York for example, the customers there maybe prefer some French cheese. The arguer has to consider and eliminate such factors to strengthen the conclusion.

Another fallacy that weakens the argument is the survey. First, the number of the people who subscribe the magazine is unknown. Maybe there are only 10-plus people in the sample, which is too small to ensure the representativeness. Unless the sample is representative of the overall population of cheeses lovers in United States, the author cannot jump to the conclusion of the increasing preference of domestic cheeses. Second, the author ignores the possibilities that the customers in favor of the imported cheeses may not sent back the questionnaires, which makes the result misleading that the customers who prefer domestic cheeses are increasing. If so, the modification of the predication is necessary.

In addition, even through one accepts the increasing preference for the domestic cheeses, the recommendation remains questionable that the beat way to make more profit is to limit the inventory of the imported cheeses and concentrate on domestic ones in all the chain stores . Maybe the domestic cheeses are much cheaper than the imported ones so they will not make many profits even if they sell a lot of them, considering the inventory expenses might be relatively higher. Or perhaps the chain store runner can make more money by promoting the imported cheese, which is more profitable, and reducing the management cost at the same time. Without a careful and scientific cost-benefit analysis, it is reluctant to assert that the recommendation is feasible.

In sum, as it lacks sufficient evidence and logical scrutiny, the conclusion reached in the argument is invalid and misleading. By taking all the factors I mentioned above into account could this memo be more persuasive.