argument207 重新写这个失败的题目，求拍了，留链回拍

ghost33UID??2267869

TOPIC: ARGUMENT207 - It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.
WORDS: 512          TIME: 0:28:25          DATE: 2007-8-14

The real reason for the decrease of the population of the species of salamander in question needs further debate, since the arguer doesn't show the causal relationship between the decrease and the claimed increasing amount of ultraviolet radiation, as well as other possible factors which may affect the population. Also, the arguer generalizes this process hastily and groundlessly to other species. Therefore, this argument is not as convincing as it stands, which will be analyzed as following.

To begin with, the coincidence of the two phenomena happening at the same time period does not demonstrate a causal relationship. Though the scientists have found that the Earth's ozone layer is becoming thin, no evidence showing that the area where this kind of salamander lives suffers from such increased ultraviolet radiation, since common sense tells us that no every where on this planet suffers. Given that the amount of ultraviolet radiation is under the safe standard at the area where the salamander lives, this argument loses its ground. Even the amount in this area transcends the safe criterion, the arguer provides no evidence showing that the ultraviolet radiation will reach the places where the eggs are, though the arguer claims that salamander eggs have no protective shells and the radiation can damage the delicate tissues. Given that the salamander lays eggs in places, the deep bottom of the lakes where no light can reach such a depth, or under some mud or plants or holes at the bottom of the lakes, places where light has no chance to reach, the argument would better remain dubious. Moreover, the arguer does not take other possible factors which may be the reason or causes into consideration. For example, the water quality of the lakes, some possible epidemic disease among the salamander, serious environment damage which makes the salamander lose their living places as well as necessary food. Unless the arguer can rule out these possibilities, we cannot accept his/her argument.

Even this species of salamander's population decrease is due to the over amount of ultraviolet radiation, the arguer unfairly generalizes that other species will suffer population declines. There is no evidence that other salamander live at the same place as the one being considered. Given that those species live in areas where ultraviolet radiation is under control, or other salamander's eggs have protective shells, or other salamanders know how to protect their eggs, the generalization is gratuitous. There is a good chance the other kinds of salamander enjoy a boom in their population, thanks to the well preserved environment and affluent food. Thus, this assertion is far from convincing.

In sum, this argument is not well substantiated. The arguer fails to provide enough information and evidence to verify his/her argument. To bolster the argument, the arguer should demonstrate the ultraviolet radiation do damage the eggs, at the same time, the arguer also needs to preclude other possible factors which may influence the salamander's population. To generalize his conclusion to a larger group safely and convincingly, more information about the similarity between those salamanders should be provided.

菲子UID??2311527

TOPIC: ARGUMENT207 - It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.WORDS: 512          TIME: 0:28:25          DATE: 2007-8-14


The real reason for the decrease of the population of the species of salamander in question needs further debate, since the arguer doesn't show the causal relationship between the decrease and the claimed increasing amount of ultraviolet radiation, as well as other possible factors which may affect the population. Also, the arguer generalizes this process hastily and groundlessly to other species. Therefore, this argument is not as convincing as it stands, which will be analyzed as following.


To begin with, the coincidence of the two phenomena happening at the same time period does not demonstrate a causal relationship. Though the scientists have found that the Earth's ozone layer is becoming thin, no evidence showing that the area where this kind of salamander lives suffers from such increased ultraviolet radiation, since common sense tells us that no every where on this planet suffers. Given that the amount of ultraviolet radiation is under the safe standard at the area where the salamander lives, this argument loses its ground. Even the amount in this area transcends the safe criterion, the arguer provides no evidence showing that the ultraviolet radiation will reach the places where the eggs are, though the arguer claims that salamander eggs have no protective shells and the radiation can damage the delicate tissues. Given that the salamander lays eggs in places, the deep bottom of the lakes where no light can reach such a depth, or under some mud or plants or holes at the bottom of the lakes, places where light has no chance to reach, the argument would better remain dubious. Moreover, the arguer does not take other possible factors which may be the reason or causes into consideration. For example, the water quality of the lakes, some possible epidemic disease among the salamander, serious environment damage which makes the salamander lose their living places as well as necessary food. Unless the arguer can rule out these possibilities, we cannot accept his/her argument.这段很不错哈，很充实！

Even this species of salamander's population decrease is due to the over amount of ultraviolet radiation, the arguer unfairly generalizes that other species will suffer population declines. There is no evidence that other salamander live at the same place as the one being considered. Given that those species live in areas where ultraviolet radiation is under control, or other salamander's eggs have protective shells, or other salamanders know how to protect their eggs, the generalization is gratuitous. There is a good chance the other kinds of salamander enjoy a boom in their population, thanks to the well preserved environment and affluent food. Thus, this assertion is far from convincing. 这里还是有问题，原文说的是其他物种，而不是其它种的蝾螈“This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.”理解上面有偏差吧。

In sum, this argument is not well substantiated. The arguer fails to provide enough information and evidence to verify his/her argument. To bolster the argument, the arguer should demonstrate the ultraviolet radiation do damage the eggs, at the same time, the arguer also needs to preclude other possible factors which may influence the salamander's population. To generalize his conclusion to a larger group safely and convincingly, more information about the similarity between those salamanders should be provided.

ghost33UID??2267869

fine！！！谢谢菲子，这点确实搞错了！！谢谢！！