Argument207 [5f第四次作业]求砖～

shuwenyingUID: 2233183

Argument207 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧！
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共用时间：45分3秒     565 words

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It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.
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In the argument, the author claims that the increase in ultraviolet radiation is responsible for the declining number of salamander for the two events coincide with each other. Further, the author continues to conclude that other species will definitely suffer from losses for the similar reason as the salamander. Unfortunately, through a careful review of the reasoning procedure in the passage, I cast doubt on the validity of the conclusions.

To begin with, the conclusion relies on a highly suspicious assumption that the ultraviolet radiation has threatened the survival of the salamander eggs. For one thing, no evidence has been provided to prove that the ultraviolet radiation of the mountain area -- the habitat of the salamander -- has increased. Although increasing amount of ultraviolet radiation could penetrate the thinning ozone layer, it is entirely possible the ozone layer over the habitat of the salamander has not changed profoundly due to the uneven distribution of the ozone layer. And even if the ozone layer does decrease in the amount, the lake water might reflect the radiation, preventing the eggs from the lethal radiation. Therefore, it is possible that the amount of ultraviolet radiation that actually reaches the eggs has not increased remarkably. For another, even if the radiation has increased and damaged the eggs, the damage might not be sufficient to prevent the eggs from hatching. Equally possible is that the salamander has development some mechanisms, including synthesizing chemicals in their skin to reflect the radiation, quick recovery from sunburn and hard skins impenetrable to radiation, as adaptation or competence for lacking egg shells. In a word, the conclusion that the ultraviolet radiation has negative influence on the eggs seems unsound.

Further, the author has ignored other possible reasons that might lead to the decline in salamander's population other than lower rate of hatching. The threshold assumption is that the birth rate of young salamanders is decreasing while no solid evidence has been pointed out to demonstrate this point. At a minimum, the number of salamanders of different ages consist of the whole population should be investigated. Moreover, the author should take other possible causes into consideration, such as the thrilling areas of habitats resulting from pollution, the overhunting, decreased source of food, losses in the food chain, global warming and deforestation. Without careful investigation excluding all the possible causes mentioned above, it is too hasty to blame the increasing radiation for the decreasing population of salamander.

Finally, even if the lowering population of salamander is attributed to the incline in the amount of radiation, it is unlikely that the other species will suffer from losses in the similar pattern. First, some species might have radiation-proof egg shells that protect their youngsters. Or they simply do not lay eggs. Second, some species may be covered by hard skins or furs isolating their delicate tissues from exposure to the radiation. Third, the other may even habituate in shadowy places or become active at the nights, with less chance to expose them to the sun directly.

In sum, the conclusion of the passage seems unpersuasive to me on several aspects. To bolster the reasoning, the author should at a minimum make a thorough investigation in the correlation between the increasing radiation and the eggs' hatching. Then other interrupting causes must be excluded by solid evidence. Last but not least, the dissimilarities among various species should be taken into consideration before valid analogy could be made.

liyue24UID: 2350787

In the argument, the author claims that the increase in ultraviolet radiation is responsible for the declining number of salamander for the two events coincide with each other. Further, the author continues to conclude that other species will definitely suffer from losses for the similar reason as the(应该可以不用the吧) salamander. Unfortunately, through a careful review of the reasoning procedure in the passage, I cast doubt on the validity of the conclusions(?应该单数还是复数呢？).

To begin with, the conclusion relies on a highly suspicious assumption that the ultraviolet radiation has threatened the survival of the salamander eggs. For one thing, no evidence has been provided to prove that the ultraviolet radiation of the mountain area -- the habitat of the salamander -- has increased. Although increasing amount of ultraviolet radiation could penetrate the thinning ozone layer, it is entirely possible the ozone layer over the habitat of the salamander has not changed profoundly due to the uneven distribution of the ozone layer. And even if the ozone layer does decrease in the amount, the lake water might reflect the radiation, preventing the eggs from the lethal radiation. (这个扯的有点远吧……为啥说湖水可以反射紫外线呢？紫外线本身就不是一种光线，也没说S的蛋都产在水里，所以，还是不要这样的possibility好了。^_^)Therefore, it is possible that the amount of ultraviolet radiation that actually reaches the eggs has not increased remarkably. For another, even if the radiation has increased and damaged the eggs, the damage might not be sufficient to prevent the eggs from hatching. Equally possible(possibility名词) is that the salamander has development(developed用过去分词，完成时) some mechanisms, including(个人觉得including有点太肯定了。说什么东西咋样，包括AAA，BBB，CCC的，这样比较确定，而且AAA,BBB,CCC是都要包括进来的；但是这个里面说的是一些可能，不如用like，表示举例子，而且没有同时都要包含进去的关系。同理，后面的and是否可以用or？) synthesizing chemicals in their skin to reflect the radiation, quick recovery from sunburn and hard skins impenetrable to radiation, as adaptation or competence for lacking egg shells. In a word, the conclusion that the ultraviolet radiation has negative influence on the eggs seems unsound.

Further, the author has ignored other possible reasons that(, which) might lead to the decline in salamander's population (,) other than lower rate of hatching. The threshold(??为啥要用这个词？而且这个是个名词，threshold assumption 是个什么assumption?) assumption is that the birth rate of young salamanders is decreasing while no solid evidence has been pointed out to demonstrate this point. At a minimum, the number of salamanders of different ages consist(consisted) of the whole population should be investigated.(这句话不太明白，为啥要调研各年龄段的S的数量在整个群落里面的比重？) Moreover, the author should take other possible causes into consideration, such as the thrilling areas of habitats resulting from pollution, the overhunting, decreased source of food, losses in the food chain, global warming and deforestation. Without careful investigation excluding(excluding?!除去上面提到的各种可能不做调查？！那上面列举的都是干啥用的呀？……我以为说这些可能都是需要调查的……) all the possible causes mentioned above, it is too hasty to blame the increasing radiation for the decreasing population of salamander.

Finally, even if the lowering population of salamander is attributed to the incline in the amount of radiation, it is unlikely that the other species will suffer from losses in the similar pattern. First(Firstly，下面类同), some species might have radiation-proof egg shells that protect their youngsters. Or they simply do not lay eggs. Second, some species may be covered by hard skins or furs isolating their delicate tissues from exposure to the radiation. Third, the other may even habituate in shadowy places or become active at the nights, with less chance to expose them to the sun directly.

In sum, the conclusion of the passage seems unpersuasive to me on several aspects. To bolster the reasoning, the author should at a minimum make a thorough investigation in the correlation between the increasing radiation and the eggs' hatching. Then other interrupting causes must be excluded by solid evidence. Last but not least, the dissimilarities among various species should be taken into consideration before valid analogy could be made.

文章写的很不错了。逻辑观点和文章组织也很好。特别是字数，值得学习。呵呵。
稍许小错误，注意点就好了。相信会有好成绩的。 :)