Argument65[desperado] 第七次作业 by Grace

grace040802UID: 2348819

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 565                 DATE: 2007-12-16 16:30:11

[Outline]
1.反驳最新商店的畅销奶酪是来自Wisconsin的Cheddar奶酪,得出国产奶酪就很受欢迎.
2.质疑Cheese of the World 的调查可信度.
3.质疑所有商店都实施停止储备进口奶酪而集中储备国产奶酪.
4.质疑该措施就一定能导致所有商店都盈利.


The president recommends that the chain of cheese stores had better stop stocking many of various of overseas but pay primarily attention on the cheese at home, in order to improve the profits by reducing expenses spent on the inventory, according to the sales at the sales at their newest store and a recent survey conducted by Cheese of the World magazine. The recommendation is specious on several critical respects.
At first, the president hastily generalizes that all of domestic cheese will be popular, according to the five best-selling cheeses are all domestic cheddar cheese from Wisconsin, for we are told nothing that whether the other kinds of domestic cheese from the other places are also best sold. It is entirely possible that consumers particularly like the cheddar cheese from Wisconsin because of its unique taste and good quality. The president makes no assurance that the other kinds of cheese at home can be attractive for the buyer. Thus, the recommendation cannot be taken seriously.
Secondly, as for the recent survey conducted by Cheese of the World magazine, it is insufficient to warrant the true preference because there is no reason to believe that the trend drawn fro, their subscribers is representative of all the cheese consumers. Not every cheese lovers would like to book this magazine. Perhaps they usually buy them from the 报刊亭(?). This kind of people definitely is rules out to the survey. Again, even if the number of their subscribers is large enough to a survey, perhaps the ones who respond to the survey are fond of the domestic cheese. Unless the respondents are representative of all the cheese consumers, the preference is unwarranted.
Thirdly, even assuming that the domestic cheeses encounter the increasing preference, it is entirely possible that the best sales of domestic cheese at the newest stores would not suffice to ensure similar result in all of their stores. Perhaps due to the newest store's sales promotion for the new opening, these cheeses are on sale, accounting to the best-selling. Or perhaps people living around the store are particularly favorite with the domenstic cheeses. Since the president has not taken these possibilities into account, the suggestion is not sustained.
The last flaw is that the president mistakenly predicts that to discontinue stocking various cheeses abroad and concentrate on domestic cheeses because of reducing expense by limiting inventory will raise the profits in all of their stores, in assumption that no matter where consumers like to buy the domestic cheeses. Because profits is a function of not just expenses but also the revenues. Perhaps due to their stores' bad service, their cheeses' sales are always staying in low odd; if so, then the profits will decrease despite falling expenses. Besides, perhaps the revenues from the foreign cheeses are much more than those at home. And without doubt, to discontinue stocking imported cheeses will makes the stores lose some general consumers who still love this kind of cheeses. If so, the profits of the stores will suffer a decrease.
In sum, the recommendation is not well supported. To bolster it, the president should provide evidence that the factors responding to the popular cheese at the newest store , and make sure that the true trend of the cheeses. To better strengthen the recommendation, I could need other more information about the management and service of the stores.