Argument235 冲刺

binzhixinhuiUID: 2399721

TOPIC: ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
WORDS: 542          TIME: 00:40:00          DATE: 2008-8-6 下午 10:01:28

   Merely based on unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the memo draw a conclusion that radio station KNOW should change its programming from rock-and roll music to a continuous news format. To substantiate the claim, the arguer points out that the total number of our listeners has recently declined while the number of older people in our listening area has increased greatly. Furthermore, he cites the result of recent survey that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics in support of this recommendation. In addition, he points out that sales of recorded music are decreased. However, the argument suffers from several logical flaws.
   To begin with, the argument relies on a unfounded assumption that older people in the listening area will surely become the listener of KNOW. Common sense tells me that older people are often more fond on meld music rather than rock-and-roll. So the increase number of has little influence on KNOW. However, the argument provident no information about how long the decrease of the number of listeners has last. If it last only one week, then, it is very likely that other facts has influence the listening rate, such as disaster, bad whether. It is also likely that the young listener of KNOW is too busy in final exam to listen to the program and thus the listening rate decrease. Without ruling out these possibilities , the author cannot convince me that the program of rock-and-roll is not popular as usual.
   Additionally, the merely fact that sales of recorded music has declined lend little support that the rock-and-roll music will no longer be popular. Perhaps people don't by the recorded music just because they can listen to KNOW. Failed to establish causal relationship between the decline of recorded music and less popular of rock-and-roll program, the arguer's recommendation is unwarranted.
   What's more, the arguer draw a hasty generalization that KNOW will success in news format. the successful of news stations in neighboring cities. There may be many differences between the two cities, for example life-style, the interests and even the loving style of music. There are not enough information about these difference, so it is impossible to draw any conclusion from this phenomenon.
   Finally, the author failed to assure me that the recent election's result can accurately reflect citizens interests on KNOW. Unless the arguer can provide the evidence that there are significant numbers of people attend in the election and did so randomly across the entire city, the election is not reliable. For example if the sample included only people working on politics, then the results would no doubt suggest their desire of politics. What's more KNOW may not only fit the local citizens needs, but also all its listening area. Lacking information about the randomness and size of the election, the manager cannot make a convincing argument base on it.
   To sum up, the recommendation lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to provide the exact reason for the declining of the program. To solidify the argument, the arguer must present more facts to demonstrate that news format are more attractive than music.

binzhixinhuiUID: 2399721

TOPIC: ARGUMENT235 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
WORDS: 557          TIME: 00:40:00          DATE: 2008-8-6 下午 10:01:28

   Merely based on unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the memo draw a conclusion that radio station KNOW should change its programming from rock-and roll music to a continuous news format. To substantiate the claim, the arguer points out that the total number of our listeners has recently declined while the number of older people in our listening area has increased greatly. Furthermore, he cites the result of recent survey that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics in support of this recommendation. In addition, he points out that sales of recorded music are decreased. However, the argument suffers from several logical flaws.
   To begin with, the argument relies on a unfounded assumption that older people in the listening area will surely become the listener of KNOW. Older people may also fond on rock-and-roll. Even not, there is still no evidence that they are interested in news. So the increase number of older people has little influence on KNOW. However, the argument provident no information about how long the decrease of the number of listeners has last. If it last only one week, then, it is very likely that other facts has influence the listening rate, such as disaster, bad whether. It is also likely that the young listener of KNOW is too busy in final exam to listen to the program and thus the listening rate decrease. Or maybe the program is not as interesting as before. Without ruling out these possibilities , the author cannot convince me that the program of rock-and-roll is not popular as usual.
   Additionally, the merely fact that sales of recorded music has declined lend little support that the rock-and-roll music will no longer be popular. Perhaps people don't by the recorded music just because they can listen to KNOW. Failed to establish causal relationship between the decline of recorded music and less popular of rock-and-roll program, the arguer's recommendation is unwarranted.
   What's more, the arguer draw a hasty generalization that KNOW will success in news format. the successful of news stations in neighboring cities. There may be many differences between the two cities, for example life-style, the interests and even the loving style of music. There are not enough information about these difference, so it is impossible to draw any conclusion from this phenomenon.
   Finally, the author failed to assure me that the recent election's result can accurately reflect citizens interests on KNOW. Unless the arguer can provide the evidence that there are significant numbers of people attend in the election and did so randomly across the entire city, the election is not reliable. For example if the sample included only people working on politics, then the results would no doubt suggest their desire of politics. What's more KNOW may not only fit the local citizens needs, but also all its listening area. Lacking information about the randomness and size of the election, the manager cannot make a convincing argument base on it.
   To sum up, the recommendation lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to provide the exact reason for the declining of the program. To solidify the argument, the arguer must present more facts to demonstrate that news format are more attractive than music.