Argument5【六人作文小组】第2周第5次作业

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT5 - The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
WORDS: 453            TIME: 上午 12:30:00          DATE: 2009-1-16



The author avers that the Perkins Pharmaceuticals (PP) will be the most profitable company in ten years based on some studies and evidence. Seemly reasonable the ratiocination is, however, after close scrutiny of the presented reasons, many of them are groundless yet unconvincing.

A threshold problem involved in this article is the assumption that the pharmaceutical industrial will be profitable in the future. The evidence that the number of people with arthritis will increase is debatable while it is possible that the statistic would drop in the future. Moreover, the author presents little evidence to indicate that there is a link between the number of patients and the profits a company may make. Thus, we cannot confidently conclude that the treatment of arthritis would be profitable.

Additionally, even if one were to concede that the pharmaceutical companies might make profits, doubts still remain if the profits of Xenon of Beckon Pharmaceuticals (BP) would drop. The author assume that after the patent of Xenon being expired in three years, other companies would make cheaper version of the drug with little evidence to support it. And the author also overlooks that the BC may invent new drugs that will maintain it profits in the future. After taking considering these possible conditions, it is too hastily to conclude that BC will not be the most profitable company in ten years.

Further, the author also concludes that the PP would be the most profitable company in the next ten years based on some clinical studies. However, the author overlooks the price of the Xylan. A compared high price would make the Xylan less profitable as the author wishes. Furthermore, clinical studies cannot guarantee the ability of the new drug, it is highly possible the side-effects Xylan may bring are still covered. And the author also presents little evidence to support that most people with arthritis are in extreme cases. The truth could be that only a limited number of patients will experience extreme cases. In that regard, the function of Xylan to extreme cases would not help the BP to be the most profitable one.

Lastly, the author also overlooks the production of other companies. During the next ten years, there would exist many more competitive companies with more functional and cheaper drugs. In this regard, both PP and BP will not be the most profitable company.

In sum, to better bolster the author's idea, more scientific study of the pharmaceutical industrial and the possible production that PP may have should be taken into consideration. The study of Xylan's side effects as well as its price is vital to this argument. Study of other companies and their productions is also crucial to conclude which would be the most profitable one.

[ 本帖最后由 sneakerliu 于 2009-1-17 17:41 编辑 ]