argument73 奇文共赏！

负箧曳屣UID: 198723

不好意思.是奇文,不过是烂的出奇的文章,呵呵,第一贴,先谢谢大家了:)

提纲:1.攻击"大多数人将会开租车"可能性;
       2.即使是如此,仍不可将业务重点转向租车.

TOPIC: ARGUMENT73 - The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
WORDS：471         TIME: 0:30:00       DATE: 2006-3-21
The statement draws a conclusion that we have to focus on our business of leasing cars rather than the selling of cars. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out evidence that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned cars. However, the arguer ignores certain important concerns. In my point of view, this argument suffers from many logical flaws.

Most obviously, the arguer fails to establish the causal relationship between the condition of car market in the past 5 years in Mohilia and the claim that the majority of drivers will be driving leased cars. This argument is unacceptable unless there is compelling evidence to support the connection between these two events. Perhaps, for example, the total number buying cars is much larger than the total number of leasing cars, because there were many residents who bought old cars. Or perhaps, lots of the residents in Mohilia liked buying new cars in other countries rather than in their own country. Furthermore, there is no evidence to prove that the increasing leasing cars are all long-term cars, maybe people leased a car in the first year, and buy another new car in the second year.

In addition, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if most of drivers will be driving leased cars, which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption, it does not follow that we must change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing cars. The arguer does not provide any solid information concerning how the result exactly happens, unless more evidence is presented. It is likely that we can earn much more money from selling each car than from leasing each car. If that, the number of the buying cars is not the most important factor. It is also likely that we can explore the market in other counties. If that, both the selling cars and the leasing cars are things that we should focus on. Finally, the past 5 years is not long enough and cannot predict the future. Without ruling out these and other possible factors I give above, the author cannot confidently conclude his/her statement.

To sum up, though the argument seems to be plausible, in fact, it is neither the analysis sound nor persuasive. Not only does it leave out such key issues, but also cites in the analysis the evidence, which does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to prove that: the condition of buying new cars and leasing new cars in the past 5 years, can make us change our focus on our business from selling cars to leasing cars. If the argument includes the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and adequate.

谢谢大家的帮助，有拍必回！　一同进步：）

annocquUID: 2127832

写的真多

我帅故我在UID: 2165562

TOPIC: ARGUMENT73 - The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
WORDS：471         TIME: 0:30:00       DATE: 2006-3-21
The statement draws a conclusion that we have to focus on our business of leasing cars rather than the selling of cars. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out evidence that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned cars. However, the arguer ignores certain important concerns. In my point of view, this argument suffers from many logical flaws.

Most obviously, the arguer fails to establish the causal relationship between the condition of car market in the past 5 years in Mohilia and the claim动词？？？ that the majority of drivers will be driving leased cars. This argument is unacceptable unless there is compelling evidence to support the connection between these two events. Perhaps, for example, the total number buying cars is much larger than the total number of leasing cars, because there were many residents who bought old cars. Or perhaps, lots of the residents in Mohilia liked buying new cars in other countries rather than in their own country. Furthermore, there is no evidence to prove that the increasing leasing cars are all long-term cars, maybe people leased a car in the first year, and buy another new car in the second year.

In addition, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if most of drivers will be driving leased cars, which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption, it does not follow that we must change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing cars. The arguer does not provide any solid information concerning how the result exactly happens, unless more evidence is presented.这个风格不错 It is likely that we can earn much more money from selling each car than from leasing each car. If that, the number of the buying cars is not the most important factor. It is also likely that we can explore the market in other counties. If that, both the selling cars and the leasing cars are things that we should focus on. Finally, the past 5 years is not long enough and cannot predict the future. Without ruling out these and other possible factors I give above, the author cannot confidently conclude his/her statement.

To sum up, though the argument seems to be plausible, in fact, it is neither the analysis sound nor persuasive. Not only does it leave out such key issues, but also cites in the analysis the evidence, which does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to prove that: the condition of buying new cars and leasing new cars in the past 5 years, can make us change our focus on our business from selling cars to leasing cars. If the argument includes the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and adequate.




文章确实比较强~~~~~~楼主的功底我真羡慕``~~~~

我帅故我在UID: 2165562

唯一的缺憾是  限制时间你能写出这么多来吗


文章稍微有点长哈  ````

davidgdwUID: 145321

The statement draws a conclusion that we have to focus on our business of leasing cars rather than the selling of cars. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out evidence that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned cars. However, the arguer ignores certain important concerns. In my point of view, this argument suffers from many logical flaws.

Most obviously, the arguer fails to establish the (a ) causal relationship between the condition of car market in the past 5 years in Mohilia and the claim that the majority of drivers will be driving leased cars. This argument is unacceptable unless there is compelling evidence to support the connection between these two events. Perhaps, for example, the total number buying cars is much larger than the total number of leasing cars, because there were many residents who bought old cars. Or perhaps, lots of the residents in Mohilia liked( like)  buying new cars in other countries rather than in their own country. Furthermore, there is no evidence to prove that the increasing leasing cars are all long-term cars, maybe people leased ( lease) a car in the first year, and buy another (可以把another去掉) new car in the second year.

In addition, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if most of drivers will be driving leased cars, which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption, it does not follow that we must change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing cars. The arguer does not provide any solid information concerning how the result exactly happens (这句话读着有点别扭), unless more evidence is presented. (我觉得这个unless和和上面的话意思是重复的)  It is likely that we can earn much more money ( profit more是不是更书面化一些？)  from selling each car than from leasing each car. If that, the number of the buying cars is not the most important factor. (这句可以讲的更细一些)  It is also likely that we can explore the market in other counties. If that, both the selling cars and the leasing cars are things that we should focus on. Finally, the past 5 years is not long enough and cannot predict the future. Without ruling out these and other possible factors I give above, the author cannot confidently conclude his/her statement.

To sum up, though the argument seems to be plausible, in fact, it is neither the analysis ( 是不是把analysis改成副词？) sound nor persuasive. Not only does it leave out such key issues, ( open issue可不可以？)  but also cites in the analysis the evidence, which does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. (这句用了定语从句反而让句子没有主干了，我指but also后面)  To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to prove that: the condition of buying new cars and leasing new cars in the past 5 years, can make us change our focus on our business from selling cars to leasing cars. If the argument includes the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and adequate.

你写的非常好，首先单词都没问题，这个我限时经常会犯低级错误；句式也有很多变化，而且论证的也很条例清楚。总之感觉和我的水平不是一个档次的，崇拜一把：）

负箧曳屣UID: 198723

谢谢大家:)

特别谢谢davidgdw，你改得很仔细，对我很有帮助：）

大家如果有帖子要改，欢迎给个连接，（不嫌弃我改的不好的话：））

大家共同进步：）