Agument48 Ares第二次作业

veinardUID: 2195006

ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
1，没有充足证据证明C的居民健康确实下降
2，low expenditures on fitness-related products and services不一定是健康下降的真正原因
3，low expenditures不一定是economy decline 造成的

By citing that lower percent of citizens with physical fitness in Corpora than twenty years ago and unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services this year, the arguer concludes that fitness levers will improve when the economy does. However, this argument relies on a series of unproven assumptions and therefore unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the conclusion that the fitness lever of citizens in C is lower is suspicious. First, the standard for adequate physical fitness defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness may be changed during the twenty years. Therefore, the comparison between only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit today and half of them met the fitness standards twenty years ago is little useful to prove that the fitness lever of the citizens has decreased. Second, even if the standards of fitness are staying unchangeable, this comparison can not prove the conclusion that citizens' fitness is getting worse, either. Maybe some less healthy people has immigrated to C, or old people in C have increased. For this matter, the premise of this argument is illogical.

Second, even if the fitness levers of citizens are really lower, the arguer unequally assumes that the reason of it is the unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services. The arguer says that the using computers has not made citizens less fit because overall fitness levers are highest in regions of C where levers of computer ownership are also highest. But he ignores that high computer ownerships don't equal much time is spend on the computers. So the judgment is not reliable. The regions of lower fitness lever have lower levers of computer ownership, but the citizens there maybe spend much more time on computers. Therefore their lower fitness lever is due to the effect of the computers. Thus, the conclusion that low expenditures on fitness-related products and services are the reason of the lower fitness levers is completely unreliable.

Third, even assuming that the lower fitness levers is due to low expenditures on fitness-related products, the recent decline in economy is not necessary the cause of the low expenditures. Perhaps the qualities of the fitness-related products and services have decreased for some reasons, or most of the citizens have owned such products and services before this year. Without eliminating these possibilities, the arguer can not convince us that improve the economy can increase the expenditures on fitness-related products, in turn, improve the levers of fitness in C.

In sum, the argument which concludes that fitness levers will improve when the economy does is unconvincing. To strengthen it the arguer should offer better evidence to prove that the fitness of the citizens is really lower, and less money spend on fit-related products and services is the cause of the lower fitness levers. In addition, more information should be provided to show that low expenditures on those products and services are due to the decline in economy.

[ 本帖最后由 veinard 于 2006-6-28 22:40 编辑 ]

expire7UID: 2160574

标题格式不对的，请参照置顶帖格式修改下。现在把帖锁定了，等修改完成以后PM我们解开。