ARGUMENT65 米国有米第五次作业 欢迎批评

cckantUID: 2247822

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 441          TIME: 0:43:46          DATE: 2006-12-14

Outline:
1.。单个商店的业务对全国的经营没有代表意义
2。 杂志的调查也没有指导性
3。即使现实符合预测的，减少进口cheese也不一定会提高盈利

The speaker claims that the cheese stores chain should not stock many of varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. The suggestion is drawn from the following evidence as claimed: (1) best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheeses; (2) a world magazine survey on its subscribers; (3) reducing inventory of imported cheeses will improve profit. However, all of these evidences and induction are not sound for a valid strategic suggestion.

Firstly, evidence that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store are all domestic cheeses is not representative. A single store is not capable to represent the preperence of the cheese consumers in the state as a whole. It is likely that that only because the domestic cheeses are cheaper and hence attract consumers living near the location of the newest stores, while the consumers in the whole country remain unchanged. Since the chain operates throughout the U.S., it is not advisable to react upon the discrete case. Moreover, even if the newest store would indicate the altered consumer preference in the country, it is still not reliable since it merely represents preference in last year. There is not guarantee that the national preference of this year will remain the same as this year.

Secondly, the survey by the Cheeses of the World magazine may be misleading. Since the magazine only carried out its survey in their subscribers, there is a good chance that the preference of the subscribers group is significantly different from the national consumers as a whole. The subscriber is only a small group that it may lack of statistic significance due to the small sample size. In addition, readers of the magazine are largely businessmen in the related industries and the super lover of cheeses. These groups of people may have dramatic preference differs from the general consumer. Or their predictions can be wrong.

Lastly, simply discontinuing stocking many of varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses may not be a profitable strategy, even if the preference changes as anticipated. Enterprises are primarily concerned about profit, rather than maximum sales in usual cases. The contingency is open that though major sales come from domestic cheeses, a large fraction of profit is contributed by the imported cheeses for imported cheeses have a remarked higher margin for instance. Hence, without the further information about margins and supplementary information, reducing inventory expense may not increase profit.

In sum, since both evidences are invalid and the lack of solid strategic support of the action, I believe it is not prudent to follow the suggestion of the president.

chronicleUID: 2254484

The speaker claims that the cheese stores chain should not stock many of varieties (a variety) of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. The suggestion is drawn from the following evidence as claimed: (1) best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheeses; (2) a world magazine survey on its subscribers; (3) reducing inventory of imported cheeses will improve profit. However, all of these evidences (单复同形)  and induction are not sound for a valid strategic suggestion.(好!)

Firstly, evidence that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store are all domestic cheeses is not representative (有点象中文的用法). A single store is not capable to represent the preperence (preference?) of the cheese consumers in the state as a whole. It is likely that that only because the domestic cheeses are cheaper and hence (which) attracts consumers living near the location of the newest stores,(就因为这家的cheese便宜,把人们都吸引到这里来了?有些勉强.) while the consumers in the whole country remain unchanged . Since the chain operates throughout the U.S., it is not advisable to react upon the discrete case. Moreover, even if the newest store would indicate the altered consumer preference in the country, it is still not reliable since it merely represents (consumers's) preference in last year. There is not guarantee that the national preference of this year will remain the same as this year (before).

Secondly, the survey (conducted) by the Cheeses of the World magazine may be misleading. Since the magazine only carried out its survey in their subscribers, there is a good chance (great probability) that the preference of the subscribers group is significantly different from (that of) the national consumers as a whole. The subscriber is only a small group that it may lack of statistic significance due to the small sample size. In addition, readers of the magazine are largely businessmen in the related industries and the super lover (能这样用吗?) of cheeses. These groups of people may have dramatic (particular) preference differs from the general consumer. Or their predictions can be wrong (注意语句的衔接.So, either case, if true, would indicate that this survey's prediction could be unreasonable) .

Lastly, simply discontinuing stocking many of varieties (同上) of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses may not be a profitable strategy, even if the preference (has) changed as anticipated. Enterprises are primarily concerned about profit, rather than maximum sales in usual cases (sale). The contingency is open that though major sales come from domestic cheeses, a large fraction (fraction是指小部分,可以用proportion ) of profit is contributed by the imported cheeses for imported cheeses have a remarked higher margin for instance. Hence, without the further information about margins and supplementary information, reducing inventory expense may not increase profit.

In sum, since both evidences are invalid and the lack of solid (valid?) strategic support of the action, I believe it is not prudent to follow the suggestion of the president.

本文的结构很清晰，主要的逻辑错误也都找到了。

需要注意的是文章在细节方面问题较多，尤其是用词；多读范文有助于完善比较地道的表达方式。另外要注意句子之间，段落之间的衔接，文中有些地方缺少必要的连接词。最后建议在末段中增加一些使得这篇argument完善的措施。