argument97 [米国有米] 2.7

绚烂夏花UID: 2245298

argument 97
The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, Kick should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."

The seeming sound argument draws the conclusion that KICK should revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage in order to gain larger audience share of the region and ultimately in crease the profits of the company. However, based on dubious evidence and illogical reasoning, the argument is far from perfect. First, the reliability of the nationwide survey and it applicability to KICK is open to doubt Moreover, the author assumes a correlation to a causal relationship. In addition, the author commits the flaw of false analogy. Finally, the author fails to rule out alternatives. I would explain them one by one.

The author of the argument unfairly assumes that the nationwide survey is applicable to the region where KICK is established. However, without detailed evidence about reliability of the survey and the time the survey was conducted, we have good reason to doubt whether the result of the survey is reliable or not in current times. If, for example, the survey was conducted ten years ago, then the result of the survey may provide little value in estimating the trend nowadays, let alone in the area KICk is in. What's more, the attitudes of men in KICK's area towards sports programs on television may vary dramatically from the nationwide level. It is highly possible that men there prefer out-door sports rather than sports programs on TV, or they may even have little interest in sports at all. Factors such as these may undermine the reliability of the survey in KICk's area.

The author fails to establish a causal relationship between the fact that the television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts and the claim the its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. It is entirely possible that other factors contribute to the increase of audience. It may be a result of the introduction of a popular talk-show emcee, or new attractive soap operas, or less boring advertisements. It may also due to a special period when people are especially concerned about the news of the region. Without ruling out such alternatives, it is presumptuous to reach the assumption that the increase in audience is caused by the increase in sports programs broadcasts.


Even if the above assumption is true, it is still doubtable that the measure taken by WACK is applicable to KICK. Differences between the two stations may outweigh their similarities, thus making the analogy highly suspect. For instance, the majority of the audience--say more than 90 percent-- may be women who are less interested in sports. Or maybe the favorite program of the region is news or operas. If so , increase sports programs on TV may It is also likely sports program broadcasted in KICK has taken 80 percent of the total schedule--so sufficient that increasing sports programs may have little influence in attracting more audiences. Without taking into account these possibilities, the assertion of the argument should be reconsidered.

The author also neglects other alternatives that have influence in the increase of profits of the company. It is possible that there is no room for the share of television audience of KICK to increase because it has reached the top. What's more, without considering the cost for introduction new sports programs, the efficiency of the management of the company and the competition situation of the region and alternatives related with the profits of the company, it is hasty to draw the conclusion that by increasing sports programs the share of the audience as the profits of the company would increase as well.

After careful consideration, the author lacks both detailed evidence and precise reasoning to make a sound argument. Before the final conclusion is made, the manager of KICK should evaluate all the possible alternatives as well as causes increase in audience of WACK, and provides sufficient evidence to prove that increasing the sports program is the best choice for KICK and it surly would be profitable.

blackswitchUID: 2110679

The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, Kick should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."

The seeming sound argument draws the conclusion that KICK should revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage in order to gain larger audience share of the region and ultimately in crease the profits of the company. However, based on dubious evidence and illogical reasoning, the argument is far from perfect. First, the reliability of the nationwide survey and it applicability to KICK is open to doubt Moreover, the author assumes a correlation to a causal relationship. In addition, the author commits the flaw of false analogy. Finally, the author fails to rule out alternatives. I would explain them one by one.[ 开篇很好 ，对全文起到了总领的作用]

The author of the argument unfairly assumes that the nationwide survey is applicable to the region where KICK is established. [我觉可以改为 is applicable to KICK’s viewing area]However, without detailed evidence about reliability of the survey and the time the survey was conducted, we have good reason to doubt whether the result of the survey is reliable or not in current times. If, for example, the survey was conducted ten years ago, then the result of the survey may provide little value in estimating the trend nowadays, let alone in the area KICk is in. What's more, the attitudes of men in KICK's area towards sports programs on television may vary dramatically from the nationwide level. It is highly possible that men there prefer out-door sports rather than sports programs on TV, or they may even have little interest in sports at all. Factors such as these may undermine the reliability of the survey in KICk's area.[论证不错， 很深入]

The author fails to establish a causal relationship between the fact that the television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts and the claim the its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. It is entirely possible that other factors contribute to the increase of audience. It may be a result of the introduction of a popular talk-show emcee, or new attractive soap operas, or less boring advertisements. It may also due to a special period when people are especially concerned about the news of the region. Without ruling out such alternatives, it is presumptuous to reach the assumption that the increase in audience is caused by the increase in sports programs broadcasts.[很不错 ]


Even if the above assumption is true, it is still doubtable that the measure taken by WACK is applicable to KICK. Differences between the two stations may outweigh their similarities, thus making the analogy highly suspect. For instance, the majority of the audience--say more than 90 percent-- may be women who are less interested in sports. Or maybe the favorite program of the region is news or operas. If so , increase sports programs on TV may [这句话没有写完吧]It is also likely sports program broadcasted in KICK has taken 80 percent of the total schedule--so sufficient that increasing sports programs may have little influence in attracting more audiences. Without taking into account these possibilities, the assertion of the argument should be reconsidered.[写得很好]

The author also neglects other alternatives that have influence in the increase of profits of the company. It is possible that there is no room for the share of television audience of KICK to increase because it has reached the top. What's more, without considering the cost for introduction new sports programs, the efficiency of the management of the company and the competition situation of the region and alternatives related with the profits of the company, it is hasty to draw the conclusion that by increasing sports programs the share of the audience as the profits of the company would increase as well.

After careful consideration, the author lacks both detailed evidence and precise reasoning to make a sound argument. Before the final conclusion is made, the manager of KICK should evaluate all the possible alternatives as well as causes increase in audience of WACK, and provides sufficient evidence to prove that increasing the sports program is the best choice for KICK and it surly would be profitable.
[全文论证深入，思路清晰， 语言表达也很清楚，只是字数好像太多了，不知道考试得时候能否写完]