argument47【0710G-HIT坚持交作业小组第五次作业】SavileRow

SavileRowUID：2284947

题目：ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
字数：491          用时：00:39:18          日期：2007-8-3 12:39:18

提纲：
1亚欧的变冷不说明全球变冷
2 没有闪光的纪录不代表全球都没有闪光；即使全球都没闪光，也不说明没有彗星撞地球，抓住原文的would这个词表示的不肯定语气
3有巨响的纪录不代表就一定有地震，还是抓住would
4 不能因为彗星被排除就认为火山爆发造成全球变冷，因为还有其他造成变冷的可能性


The arguer asserts that earth became suddenly cooler in the mid-sixth century and he blames volcanic eruption for it. To support his assertion, he cites facts that no bright flash of light might caused by meteorite collision was recorded and a loud boom which is related to volcanic eruption was mentioned in historical records back then. Careful examination of these evidences, however, reveals that they render little credible support to the assertion.

The threshold problem of the assertion involves the reliability of the global temperature condition. The arguer is too hasty to draw a conclusion that the whole earth was undergoing a significantly cool climate because few records in Asia and Europe mentioned it. However, the climate condition in Asia and Europe are possible not representative that of the world in general. It is entirely possible that those records were kept at comparative high-altitude areas. Thus, the temperature was lower naturally regardless of the existence of the global cooling trend. And the rest of world was undergoing a heating climate, which is opposite to Asia and Europe.Without elaborate materials presented the assertion is not convincing since it is based on a sample which may not typify the whole.
这一段感觉我写走了。想写亚欧纪录不代表全球纪录的，但是想找到能造成亚欧变冷而全球变暖的原因时，怎么也找不出来。所以那个海拔的原因比较牵强。

Secondly, the arguer unfairly assume that no large meteorite colliding on the basis that no sudden bright flash of light was mentioned. Yet, it does not mean there was no flash of light occurred at all on earth. Perhaps, those records on which the flash of light was mentioned were not able to survive from that time. Or, perhaps, the flash of light was beyond the scale of recorders' observation .Moreover, we can not conclude that no meteorite colliding with Earth took place because no flash of light occurred. Since it is not the inevitable phenomenon resulted from collision. It is possible, that collision did not lead to flash of light when the meteorite flied through the atmosphere in a certain way. In short, as long as the auger does not provide further evidence, I find the conclusion that no meteorite colliding occurred unjustifiable.

Thirdly, the arguer unfairly assumes that volcanic eruption was attributable to the cooling because a loud boom that "would" be consistent with eruption was mentioned in historical records. Nevertheless, a loud boom did not necessarily come from a volcanic eruption since there are many other nature events leading to this. For example, the loud boom mentioned in the records might be the result of a sudden earthquake. Without ruling out other possibilities, the arguer can not validate his conclusion.

Finally, even if a collision was not happening and a volcanic eruption was working, the arguer can not blame volcanic eruption for cooling since he preludes one possibility out of two. Because it is imprudent for the arguer to assume that they are the only two that should be responsible for the global cooling. Since the arguer fails to account for other causes, he cannot convince me on the final assertion at all.

In sum, the assertion was logically flawed as it stands because it is based on a series of unreliable evidences and deduction. To bolster his assertion, the arguer needs to provide further evidence such as(1)a report on the global temperature condition in the sixth century;(2)a report on the worldwide condition of volcanic eruption. To further examine the assertion, I need to know other possibilities which might causing global cooling.

[ 本帖最后由 SavileRow 于 2007-8-5 19:23 编辑 ]

ambitionxxUID：2314730

The arguer asserts that earth became suddenly cooler in the mid-sixth century and he blames（用错了吧） volcanic eruption for it. To support his assertion, he cites facts that no bright flash of light might caused by meteorite collision was recorded and a loud boom which is related to volcanic eruption was mentioned in historical records back then. Careful examination of these evidences, however, reveals that they render little credible support to the assertion.

The threshold problem of the assertion involves the reliability of the global temperature condition. The arguer is too hasty to draw a conclusion that the whole earth was undergoing a significantly cool climate because few records in Asia and Europe mentioned it. However, the climate condition in Asia and Europe are possible not representative that of the world in general. It is entirely possible that those records were kept at comparative high-altitude areas. Thus,（这个逻辑词有问题） the temperature was lower naturally regardless of the existence of the global cooling trend. And the rest of world was undergoing a heating climate, which is opposite to Asia and Europe.Without elaborate materials presented the assertion is not convincing since it is based on a sample which may not typify the whole.
这一段感觉我写走了。想写亚欧纪录不代表全球纪录的，但是想找到能造成亚欧变冷而全球变暖的原因时，怎么也找不出来。所以那个海拔的原因比较牵强。

Secondly, the arguer unfairly assume that no large meteorite colliding on the basis that no sudden bright flash of light was mentioned. Yet, it does not mean there was no flash of light occurred at all on earth. Perhaps, those records on which the flash of light was mentioned were not able to survive from that time. Or, perhaps, the flash of light was beyond the scale of recorders' observation .Moreover, we can not conclude that no meteorite colliding with Earth took place because no flash of light occurred. Since it is not the inevitable phenomenon resulted from collision. It is possible, that collision did not lead to flash of light when the meteorite flied through the atmosphere in a certain way. In short, as long as the auger does not provide further evidence, I find the conclusion that no meteorite colliding occurred unjustifiable.

Thirdly, the arguer unfairly assumes that volcanic eruption was attributable to the cooling because a loud boom that "would" be consistent with eruption was mentioned in historical records. Nevertheless, a loud boom did not necessarily come from a volcanic eruption since there are many other nature events leading to this. For example, the loud boom mentioned in the records might be the result of a sudden earthquake. Without ruling out other possibilities, the arguer can not validate his conclusion.

Finally, even if a collision was not happening and a volcanic eruption was working, the arguer can not blame volcanic eruption for cooling since he preludes one possibility out of two. Because it is imprudent for the arguer to assume that they are the only two that should be responsible for the global cooling. Since the arguer fails to account for other causes, he cannot convince me on the final assertion at all.

In sum, the assertion was logically flawed as it stands because it is based on a series of unreliable evidences and deduction. To bolster his assertion, the arguer needs to provide further evidence such as(1)a report on the global temperature condition in the sixth century;(2)a report on the worldwide condition of volcanic eruption. To further examine the assertion, I need to know other possibilities which might causing（cause） global cooling.
整体上不错，楼主怎么一下写这么快了，是不是搞了一个模板？