ARGUMENT147 [Victors小组]7月2日作业 by jennetrj

jennetrjUID: 2275453

ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 524          TIME: 00:30:00           

In this argument, the author concludes that sales of Whirlwind video games would increase quickly. To justify this conclusion, the author cites the survey among video-game players indicating more preference of lifelike graphics games, the type Whirlwind had just introduced. Moreover, the author claims that such games were accompanied with advertising aimed at people 10 to 25 years old. However, close scrutiny reveals several flaws in it.

To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that the declined sales of Whirlwind video games contributed to the poor design. However, no evidences provided in the passage support it. It is totally possible that the sales of video games had its own fluctuation period and it happened to be in the low pit in the last two years. Or perhaps it still remained at the top-selling list, while sales of other companies even dropped more. Without eliminating or even considering such possibilities, the author could not convince me to accept the assumption that sales of the firm were not well.

Even assuming that the poor design should responsible for the declination of sales, the reliability of the survey cited in the passage still remains to be a question, let alone the promise for increased sales of lifelike graphics games. First, there's no indication of who conducted the survey, how many people were enrolled in the study and whether they could be the representative of the general population. Maybe the research and development department of the firm carried out the study to ensure their strategy in new design. Or perhaps only 10 game players were involved, who were the new players of video games. Secondly, even the study is reliable, no promise could be made that the trend of lifelike graphics games would continue. Commonsense informs us that the popularity of video games is easy to change, maybe the next month people would like to have animation games instead. Either scenario, if true, would serve to undermine author's assumption that those lifelike graphic games would be welcomed in the market.

Furthermore, the author provides no persuasive evidence that people would like to buy the products made by Whirlwind, even if the same games are popular. People would like to consider other factors, such as the price, customer services and future up-date of the product while making their decision to buy the products. Perhaps Whirlwind offers better product but the price is prohibitive, especially for those financial dependent people aged 10 to 25. Until the author completes the analysis, the conclusion that sales of Whirlwind video fames will increase could not be taken seriously.

In sum, the argument is groundless as it stands. To consolidate it, the author should provide more evidence--maybe by polls among people--to show that lifelike games are the best welcomed video games. In addition, the author should eliminate other possible factors that made the sales of Whirlwind decreased so as to assure as that the new game would bring about the possibility of promoted sales records. To better assess the argument, we need to know whether people would like to buy products made by Whirlwind even if it is popular to play lifelike graphic games.

[ 本帖最后由 jennetrj 于 2007-7-3 14:38 编辑 ]

c0053UID: 2285120

Merely based on unfounded assumptions and dubious evidence, the author draws a conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind (W) video games are about to soar in the next few months. To corroborate the conclusion, the author spotlight that W has just introduced several games that provide lifelike graphics and require the most up-to-date computers at the people who are the age-groups most likely to play video games. The reasoning seems superficial plausible at first glance, but scrutiny reveal several underlying logical flaws in this argument.(开头的语言不错)

First and foremost, the author falsely draw a causal relationship from the people’s fancy toward W video games to the decreasing sales. The author provides no confirmation to validate this deduction. It is entirely possible that increasing numbers of people choose to play online games instead of the video games, so that the sales of the whole video games industries has declined in the past two years, so are the W video games. Or perhaps, the illegal sales of copies of W video games might also have significant impact on the sales of W’s productions. Thus, with these alternatives failed to clean up, the author’s assertion cannot convince me that the advertising campaign will contribute to hold back this decreasing sales trend.（W之前的销量下降是由于人们对其游戏不喜欢，这个在题目中讲到了吗？或者隐含了吗？我没有找到，对此进行批驳我感觉有点匪夷所思）

In my next analysis, even assuming that the lacking interest of the people to W video games bring on the decline in sales over the past two years, the author makes a hasty generalization that the advertising campaign can attract more 10 to 25 years old people to purchase W video games. What is true of a group as a whole is not necessarily true of any individual within that group. The possibility cannot be excluded that the 10 to 25 years old people are not interested in this kind of games at all because they attract more importance to the content of the games but not the image. (这里最好联系那个survey一起批驳) On the other hand, even through the 10 to 25 years old people are fond of this kind of games as the survey indicates, it is equal possible that they cannot afford the most up-to-date computers to meet the demand of playing this kind of games. We should not neglect that this group of people are almost students, paying too much money is obviously beyond their capability. Accordingly, if these possibilities are true, the author's assertion will be questionable.In the final analyzing, even through the 10 to 25 years old people will purchase more W video games which are introduced in the advertising campaign, the author still draw a hasty conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. One case in point is rarely sufficient to establish a general conclusion. Because there are many differences between the 10 to 25 years old people and other age-groups, the increasing purchase cannot be analogized to all age-groups. Also, the sales of certain games cannot be analogized to every kind of games, so that no one can guarantee that the sales of W video games besides the introduced games would also rocket. In this sense, the author cannot make me convince with the conclusion.（这一点虽然也可以批驳，但我认为是个很小的点）

To sum up, the reasoning of this argument is well presented but not well reasoned. To better strengthen and fortify the argument, the author need to solve all these logical imperfections mentioned above; then look for a more persuasive reasoning line to present the certification of the anticipation of the ascending sales of W video games. At least, lay more efficient and effective evidence to up hold his deduction.

语言不错，但是逻辑结构的安排我认为有些问题，注意批驳的顺序以及各个点之间的联系。
一起加油！



[ 本帖最后由 c0053 于 2007-7-4 10:24 编辑 ]