argument147 高频 第一篇，回拍

peterjiangfduUID: 2112058

147 The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."






The argument concludes that a two-year decline in sales of the Whirlwind video games is about to reverse itself and the sales of video games will increase dramatically in the next few months. To justify the conclusion the arguer cites a recent survey in which the video-game players prefer games with lifelike graphics. And the arguer refers to an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old. However, the conclusion relies on some groundless assumptions so that the argument is not so convincing as it stands.

As a threshold matter, the reliability and generality of the survey were questionable. If the survey was based on self reports, the results are unreliable. Moreover, we are not informed that whether the survey responses were anonymous, or even confidential. If they were, the respondents might provide the excepted answers regardless of whether they were truthful. And the arguer does not tell us how broad the survey was. Then the generality drown may not apply to most of people. If the survey limited to a certain group of video-game players, the results might not be representative. Even if the survey was broader, there were some factors one had to consider. For example, was the survey respondents randomly selected at players 10-25 years old? Was the survey limited to a certain city or even community? Thus, the recent survey cited by the arguer can not help to make the conclusion.

In addition, even if the survey was taken in a scientific way and the results of it had no problem, it is suspicious that the arguer takes for granted that an extensive advertising campaign would be successful. Whirlwind directed the advertising campaign at the people 10 to 25 years old, but the arguer do not provide the evidence to support the assumption that this age group were the major buyers of video games. Perhaps people at other age ranges are more likely to play video games. Moreover, even if people 10 to 25 years old were the major buyers of their video games, they might not afford to up-to-date computers required by the games with lifelike graphics. Because most of them were students and did not have stable earning to live, to say nothing of computers. The arguer has to address these possibilities and rule them out and then we can accept the conclusion.

Last but not last, even if the advertising campaign was remarkable and successful, the arguer hastily to generalize the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games would increase dramatically in the next few months. Perhaps Whirlwind video games are prohibitively expensive for the key demographic group. Or perhaps Whirlwind' competitors are now introducing similar games at lower prices or with additional features that render them more attractive to video game players than Whirlwind's new games. Thus, it is uncertain that the sales of Whirlwind video games will dramatically increase in the next few month.

To sum up, this argument fails to provide key evidence to support the claim. To strength it, the arguer must provide more evidence that the recent survey is reliable and general and the advertising campaign can attract the video games players successfully. The arguer must also show more true and invulnerable evidence to make the conclusion that that sales of Whirlwind video games will dramatically increase soon.

staralwaysUID: 193479

The argument concludes that a two-year decline in sales of the Whirlwind video games is about to reverse itself [多余，去掉。] and the sales of video games will increase dramatically in the next few months. To justify the conclusion the arguer cites a recent survey in which the video-game players prefer games with lifelike graphics. And the arguer refers to an extensive advertising campaign directed at people [of] 10 to 25 years old. However, the conclusion relies on some groundless assumptions so that the argument is not so convincing as it stands.

As a threshold matter, the reliability and generality of the survey were questionable. If the survey was based on self reports [什么意思？], the results are unreliable. Moreover, we are not informed that whether the survey responses were anonymous, or even confidential. If they were, the respondents might provide the excepted answers regardless of whether they were truthful. And the arguer does not tell us how broad the survey was. Then the generality drown may not apply to most of people. If the survey limited to a certain group of video-game players, the results might not be representative. Even if the survey was broader, there were some factors one had to consider. For example, was the survey respondents randomly selected at players 10-25 years old? Was the survey limited to a certain city or even community? Thus, the recent survey cited by the arguer cannot help to make the conclusion. [感觉没有必要所有关于survey的可能攻击点都泛泛地讲一遍，抓住两个左右具体攻击就行了。]

In addition, even if the survey was taken in a scientific way and the results of it had no problem, it is suspicious that the arguer takes for granted that an extensive advertising campaign would be successful. Whirlwind directed the advertising campaign at the people 10 to 25 years old, but the arguer does not provide the evidence to support the assumption that this age group were [is] the major buyers of video games. Perhaps people at other age ranges are more likely to play video games. Moreover, even if people 10 to 25 years old were the major buyers of their video games, they might not afford to up-to-date computers required by the games with lifelike graphics. Because most of them were students and did not have stable earning to live, to say nothing of computers. [直接改了一下：let alone buying expensive computers。] The arguer has to address these possibilities and rule them out and then we can accept the conclusion.

Last but not last, even if the advertising campaign was remarkable and successful, the arguer hastily to generalize the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games would increase dramatically in the next few months. Perhaps Whirlwind video games are prohibitively expensive for the key demographic group. Or perhaps Whirlwind' competitors are now introducing similar games at lower prices or with additional features that render them more attractive to video game players than Whirlwind's new games. Thus, it is uncertain that the sales of Whirlwind video games will dramatically increase in the next few months. [这段攻击得不错。]

To sum up, this argument fails to provide key evidence to support the claim. To strength it, the arguer must provide more evidence that the recent survey is reliable and general and the advertising campaign can attract the video games players successfully. The arguer must also show more true and invulnerable evidence to make the conclusion that that sales of Whirlwind video games will dramatically increase soon. [结尾中规中矩。]